Opinions

Economic Calm before the Political Storm – LBS Executive Breakfast Session – February 2022

Nigeria – A giant with no leap

In a world fast-evolving, Nigeria – the largest economy in Africa – constantly seems to be playing catch up in spite of the vast amount of resources at its disposal. Nigeria has also built up quite a reputation for its belated and inadequate responses to economic shocks and incidents of insecurity. While we hold our breath for a better fiscal year, it is imperative to mention that Nigeria needs a quick change in its systems and market structures to achieve macroeconomic stability. Not to paint a gloomy scenario, but the IMF thinks Nigeria should prepare for possible turbulence and we believe that the multilateral agency is not far from the truth.

Retail sector – ripe for the taking

For an economy with so many patches, Nigeria still holds vital and profitable investment opportunities. In our recent study, the shining star is the “Retail industry” – an offshoot of the trade sector, which is the second-highest employer of labour after Agric (16%). Trade also accounts for 14.93% of the country’s GDP. The retail sector is a perfectly competitive market that adapts quickly to changing trends. In spite of major constraints to consumer demand and the supply chain, we forecast continued growth in the next 5 years, as well as large-scale Pan-African footprints. With no quoted companies on the NSE in this space and the landscape largely unscathed, the retail sector is a good bet for your money – depending on your risk appetite.

What to expect soon!

A few data points will be released in February (Q4’21 GDP, January inflation and foreign trade data) and we expect these to dictate the pace of economic activities in the next few weeks leading up to our next session.

Till then, we implore you to enjoy this edition of the LBS Breakfast session, wherein Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank carefully analyze recent economic developments and provide a periscope for the month of February

Adapted from Proshare

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