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STERLING HOLDINGS’IN N40 BILLION BAD LOAN SHOCK

Sterling Financial Holdings made N75.3 billion after tax in nine months, 21% more than last year, grew deposits by N857 billion to N3.84 trillion, and raised N94.4 billion in fresh capital to hit N595 billion equity. On the surface, it is the perfect fresh start story for a new holding company. Underneath, it took a N40.2 billion hit to clean its books, burned through nearly N300 billion in cash, and saw its earnings per share fall despite higher profit. The 2026 result is not a victory lap. It is a costly reset.

The first crack is asset quality, and it is the biggest number in the whole report. Credit loss expense on financial assets was N40.28 billion, up 398% from N8.08 billion a year ago. In the third quarter alone, it was N16.4 billion versus N2.8 billion last year. That is not a normal increase. That is a deliberate purge. Sterling grew its loan book by 28.8% to N1.819 trillion in nine months, creating N446 billion in new loans. Its non-performing loan ratio improved marginally to 4.6% from 4.7% in December, which looks good, but in absolute terms NPLs grew to roughly N83.6 billion from N66.4 billion. The provisioning consumed 13.1% of operating income, up from 3.6% last year. It shows the group is recognizing bad and delinquent loans it inherited as a commercial bank and now, as a HoldCo with three subsidiaries, is forced to provide for under stricter governance. It is a weakness turned into a strategy, but it wiped out what would have been N115 billion profit before tax.

The second weakness is cost and spread pressure, the classic threat of interest rate volatility. Interest expense rose 23.9% to N147.8 billion, interest paid on deposits alone was N134.3 billion versus N104.2 billion last year. Personnel expenses jumped 33.6% to N54.2 billion, general and administrative expenses up 15.5% to N47.5 billion, other operating expenses up 15.3% to N46.9 billion. Total expenses hit N169.4 billion. Personnel growth alone outpaces gross earnings growth of 33.1%. This is inflation impact and HoldCo overhead. The spread between interest earned and interest paid is still positive, N205.8 billion net interest income, but it is under threat. If the Central Bank cuts the monetary policy rate, interest income of N353.7 billion, up 34.8% year on year, will reprice down faster than deposit costs. The loan-to-deposit ratio is only 47.3%, extremely conservative compared to industry average of 65%. That low ratio protects liquidity but means N1.5 trillion of deposits are sitting in low-yield securities, not loans. It is safe, but it creates systemic low returns on investment.

Cash is the third threat. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of September were N501.7 billion versus N799.5 billion a year ago, down almost N300 billion. Cash and balances with the Central Bank fell to N725 billion from N761 billion. Net cash from operating activities was a healthy N385.3 billion, up from N249.3 billion, but investing activities used N479.6 billion, mainly N513.9 billion purchase of debt instruments at fair value through other comprehensive income. The group is asset-long and cash-short. It rotated out of amortised cost assets, which fell 73.7% to N25.8 billion, into trading assets. Debt instruments at fair value through profit or loss surged 160% to N192.7 billion, debt at FVOCI up 79% to N1.15 trillion. This rotation generated other operating income up 95.3% to N40.2 billion, which saved the quarter, but it ties up liquidity. If depositors ask for money, the low LDR helps, but the cash pile is thinner.

Governance and the fresh start promise is the fourth issue. Sterling Financial Holdings was incorporated in October 2021 and listed in November 2022 as a non-operating holding company. Its principal activity is investing as approved by the Board and CBN. It has three subsidiaries: Sterling Bank, Alternative Bank, a non-interest bank, and SterlingFi Wealth Management. Investment in subsidiary at HoldCo level rose to N314.8 billion from N261.8 billion, with N52.7 billion fresh injection in nine months, likely into Alternative Bank. That is strategic re-engineering. But the directors report in this extract names only three directors, with incomplete designations, and provides no segment reporting, no branch network spread data, no service management framework metrics. For a HoldCo that raised N94.4 billion in shares, share capital up 25.2% to N34.2 billion, share premium up 62.6% to N227.2 billion, disclosure is thin. Earnings per share fell to N11.35 from N12.82 despite profit up 21% because of dilution. That dilution versus growth trade-off must be explained.

So how did profit still rise? By deploying sheer scale to neutralize these weaknesses. Gross earnings grew 33.1% to N454.9 billion, driven by interest income up 34.8% to N353.7 billion and net interest income up 44% to N205.8 billion. That N62.8 billion increase in net interest income alone covered the N32.1 billion increase in credit losses. Net fees and commission income grew 10.4% to N39.6 billion, net trading income held at N21.3 billion despite volatility, and other operating income nearly doubled. Operating income was N307 billion versus N222.2 billion, up 38.1%. Pre-tax profit margin actually improved to 21.4% from 20.7% because revenue grew faster than total expenses of 18.3%. Cost-to-income ratio improved to 55.2% from 64.4%. The deposit base growth of 28.7% to N3.84 trillion shows customer confidence in the new structure. The group used N857 billion in new deposits to fund N446 billion in new loans and N800 billion in securities, keeping LDR at 47.3% to preserve safety while hunting yield.

Capital is the ultimate shield. Shareholder funds up 38.8% to N595.1 billion from N428.7 billion in nine months is not organic. It is the N94.4 billion share issuance plus N124.3 billion retained earnings, up 88.8% from N65.8 billion. Other components of equity are N209.2 billion. Total equity now supports N5.09 trillion assets, up 30.3% from N3.91 trillion. That capital adequacy, roughly 11.7%, allows Sterling to absorb the N40.2 billion provisioning shock and still report 16.9% annualized return on equity. Transfer to reserves was N16.8 billion, transfer to general reserve N58.4 billion, showing prudence. At HoldCo level, gross earnings were N19.5 billion versus N3.9 billion, other operating income N12.7 billion versus N2.4 billion, profit after tax N10.1 billion versus N451 million, showing dividend upstreaming from subsidiaries is working.

The judgment is this: Sterling Holdings’ 9M 2026 is a classic HoldCo fresh start where the balance sheet was cleaned at the expense of earnings quality. It neutralized a 398% surge in bad loan provisions with a 44% surge in net interest income and a 95% surge in other income from securities rotation. It neutralized interest expense pressure with 28.7% deposit growth and a conservative 47.3% LDR that leaves N1.5 trillion headroom to grow loans. It neutralized systemic low returns by rotating N513 billion into higher-yield FVOCI and FVTPL assets. But it paid for it with N300 billion less cash, 33.6% higher personnel costs, and diluted EPS. If the new loans of N446 billion stay clean and the Alternative Bank non-interest model scales, the 4.6% NPL ratio will hold and NIM will expand. If not, the N40 billion shock is just the first installment.

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