This article examines the recent decision by the United Arab Emirates to exit OPEC and what it could mean for Nigeria’s own strategic positioning within the global oil market. It situates the UAE’s move within current geopolitical and market dynamics and interrogates whether Nigeria should consider a similar path, exploring the country’s improving production profile and the broader implications of OPEC membership for price stability, sovereignty, and long-term economic planning.
In the wake of the United Arab Emirates decision to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), some have begun to ask a provocative question: should Nigeria consider doing the same? It is the kind of question that tends to surface at moments of global uncertainty, when bold moves by one country invite imitation by others, regardless of whether the underlying conditions are comparable.
The UAE’s announcement, coming after nearly six decades of membership, was framed around national interest and production flexibility. It also landed at a tense geopolitical moment, with rising friction involving Iran and disruptions around key oil transit routes. Markets reacted quickly. Brent crude oil was up about 3% to more than $111 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was up about 3.5% to almost $100 a barrel, reflecting both the immediate uncertainty and the longer-term implications for supply coordination.
For Nigeria, however, the question of exiting OPEC cannot be answered by analogy alone. It must be grounded in the country’s own realities, which are both evolving and, in some respects, improving.
Recent data suggests that Nigeria’s oil sector may be regaining some momentum. According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, crude oil production rose to 1.71 million barrels per day between April 2025 and April 2026, the highest level recorded in five years. This signals that, at least in the short term, Nigeria is beginning to close the gap between its potential and its actual output.
That said, context matters. For much of the last decade, Nigeria struggled to meet its OPEC quota due to a combination of pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment. There were periods when production dipped well below 1.3 million barrels per day, making the idea of being constrained by OPEC quotas somewhat theoretical.
The recent improvement to 1.71 million barrels per day changes the tone of the conversation, but not yet its substance. Nigeria is only now approaching levels that bring it closer to its allocated quota. It is not yet in the position of countries like the UAE, which have significantly expanded capacity and are actively seeking to produce beyond OPEC-imposed limits.
To understand the difference, one must revisit Nigeria’s entry into OPEC in 1971 under General Yakubu Gowon. At the time, the organization offered a powerful platform for collective bargaining. This was reinforced during the 1973 oil embargo, when coordinated action by oil-producing countries reshaped global energy politics. For Nigeria, membership meant stability and a degree of protection in an otherwise volatile market.
Those benefits have not entirely disappeared. OPEC still plays a critical role in managing global oil supply and, by extension, price stability. For a country like Nigeria, where oil revenues remain central to government finances and foreign exchange earnings, this stability is not merely desirable, it is essential.
The UAE’s decision reflects a different calculation. With production capacity exceeding four million barrels per day and substantial financial reserves, Abu Dhabi has both the means and the incentive to operate outside OPEC’s constraints. Its departure is less a rejection of the organization and more an assertion of its own readiness to act independently.
Nigeria, by contrast, is still navigating a complex set of domestic challenges. Infrastructure remains fragile, oil theft continues to erode output, and regulatory consistency is still a work in progress despite the passage of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021. These are not issues that an OPEC exit would resolve.
There is, of course, an argument rooted in sovereignty. Why should Nigeria, with its pressing development needs, subject its production decisions to a collective framework shaped partly by other countries’ interests? It is a fair question, and one that resonates in a political environment where economic autonomy is often seen as a marker of national strength.
However, sovereignty must be understood in practical terms. The ability to produce, refine, and export efficiently is far more consequential than the formal freedom to do so. Without sufficient capacity and operational efficiency, the benefits of exiting OPEC would remain largely theoretical.
There is also the matter of market dynamics. Oil is a global commodity, and its price is influenced by a wide range of factors beyond any single country’s control. OPEC’s coordinated approach helps to moderate extreme price fluctuations. Outside that framework, Nigeria would be more exposed to volatility. In such a scenario, increasing production might not necessarily lead to increased revenue if global prices were to fall.
The more fundamental issue, therefore, lies not in Nigeria’s membership of OPEC but in the performance of its oil sector. The recent rise in production to 1.71 million barrels per day is encouraging, but it must be sustained and built upon. For most of the past year, Nigeria’s average daily crude production was below the 1.5-million-barrel quota OPEC set for the country. According to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria’s crude production in March was 1.38 mbpd. Although Nigeria recorded a marginal improvement in January, when production rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd, the rebound was short-lived as output fell significantly in February to 1.31 mbpd was recorded. Addressing oil theft, improving infrastructure, and creating a stable regulatory environment are far more pressing priorities than reconsidering OPEC membership.
At the same time, the global energy transition adds another layer of urgency. As countries gradually shift toward renewable energy sources, the long-term demand for oil becomes less certain. For Nigeria, this underscores the importance of using current oil revenues to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on a single commodity.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC is a bold move, but it is one grounded in capacity and strategic clarity. Nigeria’s situation calls for a different approach, one that prioritizes internal reform over external repositioning.
The question of whether Nigeria should leave OPEC is worth asking. But for now, the more important question is whether Nigeria is fully leveraging the opportunities within its current position. Until that question is convincingly answered, exiting OPEC risks being less a strategic necessity and more a symbolic gesture.
And in a country that has often leaned on symbolism, what is required at this moment is something far less dramatic but far more consequential: sustained, disciplined execution.
About the AUTHOR
Tosin ADEOTI is an avid writer and socio-political commentator. He is the author of ‘Kingdoms of Africa: Exploring the Continent’s Pre-Colonial Pasts’, ‘Beyond Profit: How a Nigerian Company Built a Culture of Credibility’, and ‘’The Art of Argument: How to Know Language Deceives You’. He is also the author of mini-guides like ‘’Productive Days: Time Mastering Tools and Tips for Everyone’’ and ‘Career Development: Steps to Attaining the Career of Your Dreams’. He has written publicly on Nigerian economic and political affairs for about a decade. He has also led digital innovations such as developing a community of book lovers at Naija Book Club and a fast-rising online current affairs and knowledge-based newsletter at Freshly Pressed. His opinion pieces have appeared in several national newspapers in areas such as economic empowerment and development, digital innovations, and political restructuring. He is also a highly experienced project manager and entrepreneur with over a decade of experience in various sectors.
