Nigeria’s Q1 2026 Trade Surplus: Oil Lift Meets Import Compression
Nigeria’s external account posted one of its strongest quarters in years, with the merchandise trade surplus jumping 340.88% to N7.55 trillion in Q1 2026 from N1.71 trillion in Q4 2025. The National Bureau of Statistics data shows total trade hit N34.79 trillion, but the composition tells the real story: exports did the heavy lifting while imports fell off a cliff.
Exports: Crude Still King, But Not Alone
Total exports reached N21.17 trillion, or 60.85% of all trade. That is 2.77% higher than Q1 2025’s N20.60 trillion and 11.63% above Q4 2025’s N18.96 trillion. Crude oil remained dominant at N11.20 trillion, 52.92% of exports. Yet the non-crude story matters. Non-crude exports were N9.97 trillion, or 47.08% of the total. Within that, non-oil products alone contributed N3.19 trillion. Mineral products led at N18.16 trillion, 85.77% of exports, but chemical and allied products at N1.39 trillion and prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits and vinegar at N745.74 billion signal diversification beyond the wellhead.
Destination markets shifted toward traditional buyers. Europe took N7.93 trillion, making it Nigeria’s largest export market. Asia followed at N6.42 trillion. India was the single biggest country buyer at N2.77 trillion, ahead of France, the Netherlands, Spain, and the U.S. Africa also mattered: Nigeria exported N4.06 trillion to the continent while importing just N654.94 billion, a N3.41 trillion regional surplus. ECOWAS accounted for N2.20 trillion of those exports. West Africa alone delivered a N2.19 trillion surplus on N2.27 trillion exports versus N76.54 billion imports, with Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Ghana, and Benin as key outlets for petroleum products, gas oil, jet fuel, PMS, and urea.
Imports: The Big Drop
The surplus was not just an export story. Imports collapsed to N13.62 trillion, 39.15% of total trade. That is down 18.17% year-on-year from N16.64 trillion in Q1 2025 and down 21.05% quarter-on-quarter from N17.25 trillion in Q4 2025. Machinery and transport equipment still topped the bill at N5.01 trillion, 36.79% of imports. Mineral fuels followed at N2.65 trillion, and chemicals at N2.02 trillion.
The import bill drop in mineral fuels is telling. With Dangote Refinery and other domestic refining capacity ramping, PMS and diesel import dependence is falling. That single category shift saves billions of dollars and directly widens the surplus. Asia remained the dominant source at N7.55 trillion, 55.45% of imports, with China alone supplying N5.10 trillion.
What It Means: FX Relief, GDP Support, and a Policy Signal
Three things stand out. First, external sector health improved materially. A N7.55 trillion surplus versus N1.71 trillion last quarter eases FX pressure, supports reserves, and gives the CBN room to stabilize the naira without burning through buffers.
Second, the trade sector remains a GDP anchor. It contributed 17.89% to real GDP in Q1 2026. That is slightly below Q1 2025’s 18.21% but above Q4 2025’s 16.84%. With overall GDP growth at 3.89% year-on-year, trade is doing more than its share of the work.
Third, the structure is shifting. Crude is still 52.92% of exports, so oil price and production swings still dictate the headline. But non-crude at 47.08% and non-oil at N3.19 trillion are not rounding errors. The Africa surplus of N3.41 trillion shows AfCFTA and regional refining linkages are beginning to show up in the data. The import compression is partly policy-driven: FX scarcity, higher tariffs, and import substitution are biting.
The Risks Behind the Surplus
A 341% jump in surplus looks good, but the drivers are double-edged. Import decline of 21.05% quarter-on-quarter reflects weaker consumer and industrial demand, not just substitution. Machinery and transport equipment still cost N5.01 trillion, so capital goods demand persists. If that falls further, it signals investment is stalling.
Export growth of 11.63% quarter-on-quarter is solid, but it leans on crude at N11.20 trillion. One outage, one OPEC cut, or one price dip, and the N7.55 trillion surplus narrows fast. Non-oil at N3.19 trillion is growing, yet still only 15.1% of total exports. Prepared foodstuffs at N745.74 billion show potential, but scale is limited.
Bottom Line
Q1 2026 delivered a rare combination: higher oil earnings, lower fuel imports, and a credible non-oil contribution. The N7.55 trillion surplus gives policymakers breathing room on FX and inflation. For banks, it means more domiciliary inflows and trade finance opportunities. For the naira, it means less panic.
The test is sustainability. If refining keeps PMS imports at N2.65 trillion or lower, and if non-oil exports push past N4 trillion, Nigeria can run structural surpluses even when oil wobbles. If not, Q1 will look like a one-off windfall built on compression, not transformation. The data says the external sector is healing. The next quarters will show if it is actually strengthening.
