The exclusion of Hon. Oladipupo Adebutu and his running mate from INEC’s final list for the February 6, 2027 Ogun governorship election did not happen in a vacuum. It is the culmination of a toxic political chemistry that has defined Ogun PDP for almost a decade and a state where power has become increasingly difficult for the opposition to capture.
Before this INEC hammer, Ogun’s political map was already settled in two camps. On one side is the APC, which despite its own internal rift between Governor Dapo Abiodun’s camp and Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola who is now the APC candidate on the list, has maintained a ruthless grip on the state machinery, controlling the structure from Abeokuta to Ijebu. The APC enters 2027 as a party with federal incumbency, state incumbency, and a war chest, but with a divided house that needed a strong opposition to exploit it.[Yayi]
On the other side was the PDP, a party permanently at war with itself. Since 2019, the Ogun PDP has never entered an election as one party. It is always two PDPs – the Adebutu group backed by the national secretariat, and the rival group led by Segun Showunmi, Jimi Lawal and others, each conducting parallel congresses, parallel primaries, and flooding the courts with pre-election matters. In 2023, Adebutu emerged from this same chaotic process, won at the primary but spent months in court defending his ticket. That unresolved crisis is the background to 2026. INEC watched it, the courts watched it, and the law provided a trap.
Why was Adebutu excluded? INEC has not given a reason, but the Electoral Act 2026 and recent history give three probable triggers. First is non-compliance with Section 82 and 84 of the Electoral Act – failure to properly notify INEC of primaries, or failure to conduct a monitored primary. If INEC did not monitor the PDP primary that produced Adebutu, it cannot legally accept the candidate. Second is the effect of subsisting court judgments. The fact that INEC explicitly stated that ADC’s Lawal Jimi Adebisi – himself a former PDP aspirant – was included “pursuant to a court order” is telling. It suggests that a court may have nullified the PDP process that produced Adebutu or ordered the acceptance of another process. Third is internal party documentation failure. INEC’s candidate list is generated from Form EC9 and party submission signed by national chairman and secretary. With the national PDP itself embroiled in a leadership tussle between acting national chairman and pro-Wike forces, a failure to properly sign or upload Adebutu’s name within the portal window is a real possibility.
Whatever the technical reason, the implication is seismic.
For Adebutu himself, this may not be the absolute end of the road, but it is the end of the road as the frontrunner. Section 32(2) of the Electoral Act 2026 gives PDP 14 days to complain to INEC with an affidavit signed by its national chairman and secretary. That window is his only lifeline. But if the exclusion is rooted in a court judgment, INEC cannot reverse it until a superior court vacates it. With just about 120 days to election, Adebutu will now be forced to fight on two fronts – INEC bureaucracy and the courts – while his campaign stalls. His political capital, built on huge spending since 2019, risks evaporation if he is not on the ballot.
For his opponents, particularly the APC candidate Adeola Olamilekan Solomon, Adebutu’s exclusion is a gift wrapped by his own party’s indiscipline. Yayi’s biggest threat was never the smaller parties – Accord, APM, SDP, NNPP – but a united PDP with Adebutu’s Ijebu base and deep pockets. With PDP off the INEC list, even temporarily, APC can focus on consolidating its own divided structure and mopping up PDP defectors. The real beneficiary may be the ADC candidate Lawal Jimi Adebisi, who now enters the race as the court-backed alternative and could inherit the entire anti-APC vote that would have gone to PDP.[Yayi]
In the end, Ogun’s chemistry remains unchanged: APC wins not because it is most popular, but because PDP repeatedly fails to file its own papers correctly. If Adebutu fails to return to the list in 14 days, 2027 will be remembered as the year Ogun PDP defeated itself before APC even started campaigning.
