Nigeria’s crude oil exports climbed to N11.20 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, reasserting the commodity’s dominance as the country’s largest foreign exchange earner and the engine behind a N7.55 trillion merchandise trade surplus.
The latest National Bureau of Statistics data shows crude accounted for 52.92% of total exports of N21.17 trillion, while total imports stood at N13.62 trillion. On a net basis, Nigeria exported N11.20 trillion of crude and imported N1.91 trillion, underscoring how heavily external balances still lean on oil.
The quarterly performance was uneven month to month. January recorded N3.40 trillion in crude exports, February dipped to N2.97 trillion, and March surged to N4.84 trillion, carrying the quarter. That March spike reflects stronger shipments and favorable market conditions, likely tied to geopolitical risk premiums that lifted Bonny Light above $100 per barrel during the quarter.
Compared with recent periods, Q1 2026 was a recovery from the immediate prior quarter but still below peak levels. Crude exports were N11.20 trillion versus N9.70 trillion in Q4 2025, a 15.46% increase. Yet they were down about 13.5% from Q1 2025’s N12.96 trillion, and also below Q3 2025 at N12.81 trillion and Q2 2025 at N11.97 trillion.
The rebound from Q4 helped widen the trade surplus to N7.55 trillion as stronger export receipts combined with lower imports to strengthen Nigeria’s external position. With crude making up more than half of all exports, the surplus math is straightforward: when oil ships, the balance sheet improves.
That improvement comes with context. Nigeria generated $31.54 billion from crude oil exports in 2025, according to Central Bank of Nigeria data, a 14.41% decline from $36.85 billion in 2024. The current account surplus also narrowed in 2025 to $14.04 billion from $19.03 billion in 2024, showing that even strong oil years can be eroded by imports, services, and income outflows.
The Q1 2026 lift was helped by global tensions. The Iran conflict, which started in February, has kept supply risk elevated and benchmark prices firm. As one of Africa’s largest producers, Nigeria benefits when geopolitical disruption supports crude above $100. If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed or contested, those premiums could persist.
But the same conflict exposes Nigeria’s vulnerabilities. Prolonged disruptions raise shipping and freight costs, feed inflation globally, and inject volatility into the very prices that currently help the treasury. The N1.91 trillion in crude imports during Q1 shows Nigeria still buys crude, often for blending or for refineries awaiting full optimization, meaning price spikes cut both ways.
The bigger question is sustainability. The N11.20 trillion export figure is strong, yet it sits 13.5% below Q1 2025. Production, not just price, determines revenue. Oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, and delayed upstream projects continue to cap output. Without fixing those, Nigeria captures price upside but not volume upside.
Refining capacity is the other lever. Dangote Refinery and other plants can reduce the N1.91 trillion crude import bill and shift Nigeria toward exporting refined products rather than swapping crude for PMS. That would keep more of the petroleum value chain onshore and reduce exposure to shipping disruptions out of the Gulf.
For now, the Iran war creates short-term opportunities for oil exporters. Bonny Light at $102 per barrel and March exports at N4.84 trillion show how quickly geopolitics can pad Nigeria’s external accounts. The N7.55 trillion trade surplus gives the Central Bank breathing room on reserves and the naira.
Long-term resilience, however, will not come from the Strait of Hormuz. It will come from producing more barrels consistently, securing pipelines, attracting upstream capital, and refining at home. Crude delivered N11.20 trillion in Q1 and 52.92% of exports. That is both the strength of Nigeria’s trade position and the clearest sign of its concentration risk.
