
Nigeria’s ability to reach its estimated 2023 budgeted oil output of 1.69 million barrels per day (mb/d) and its 1.8mb/d OPEC quota is in doubt. Official data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows crude oil output increased, albeit slightly, by 28,000 b/d to 1.258 mb/d in January ’23 from 1.235 mb/d in December ’22, contrary to early estimates by Refinitiv Eikon and Reuters Survey that Nigeria’s oil production in January stagnated at 1.2 mb/d. Total production—which includes condensates—rose from 1.414 mb/d in December ‘22 to 1.494 mb/d as a result of higher output from the Brass, Escravos, and Odudu terminals month over month offset by lower output from the Bonny, Qua Iboe, and Forcados terminals, among others. Analysts say the inclusion of condensates in the output increases optimism of fulfilling the country’s oil output targets, despite the meager growth in crude oil production dampening hopes of a comeback in production level.
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