If you watch Ogun APC closely, you will see that the 2027 governorship contest is already being fought, and the weapons in use were forged eight and ten years ago. The public story is “Yayi the Lagos Senator vs Ogun West’s turn.” The real story, according to a political observer’s account of the party’s internal wars, is about betrayal, miscalculation, and debts that were never settled after 2015 and 2019.
The cards are already on the table, and everyone is playing with jokers they think no one else can see. Senator Solomon “Yayi” Adeola’s card is structure. The account claims that as at November last year he had 16 of the 26 members of the Ogun State House of Assembly. That is not just influence. That is the power to frustrate a governor, to block budgets, to threaten impeachment. It meant the executive was one conversation away from being cornered. His assumed joker was the belief that Abuja had blessed him, that this was a Tinubu project. A political observer disputes that directly: “That is not true. To the best of my knowledge, Asiwaju was not involved at all.” The observer maintains Yayi’s venture was aligned with Aregbesola’s structure, not with Tinubu’s. When the instruction came for him to return to the Senate for a second term, Amosun’s camp read it as Tinubu stopping him. They were fighting a ghost. Yayi’s real weakness is that he built that Assembly structure without the final cover of the presidency, and structure without national backing is expensive to maintain.
Governor Dapo Abiodun’s card is incumbency and money. The account describes him as getting on board “on his own, deploying the best of old PDP’s tactics,” with the war chest of an oil magnate. His joker was Hon. Abiodun Akinlade, who reportedly pulled 4 rebel legislators back from Yayi, saving the governor’s control of the House. Akinlade thought that loyalty would buy him the 2027 ticket. He was told instead, “It’s Amosun or nothing.” That is the cruelty of Ogun politics: yesterday’s savior becomes today’s placeholder. Abiodun’s other card is that he already beat Amosun once. In 2019 he was allegedly told to go for Senate, and party officials were instructed to boycott him. His response became legend: “Instead of Senate, I will run for Governor. Stop me if you can.” He did, and he won. That victory was personal, not just political, because it was against the man who tried to deny him even a Senate seat in 2015. But incumbency is also a burden. He now has to prove that 2019 was not a fluke and that he can deliver enough to make the old grievances irrelevant.
Former Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s card is still the party machinery and the myth of the “General.” His joker for years was that he could anoint or block anyone. That joker has been spent. The account accuses him of two betrayals that now haunt him. First, refusing to recommend Dapo for minister in 2015 despite his contributions. Second, trying to push him to Senate in 2019 and then working against him. Today he is described as “fighting on many fronts” and the advice from within is to “count your losses and retreat in an orderly fashion.” His problem is that both he and Yayi misread Abuja. They assumed Tinubu had picked a side and used his name to intimidate opponents. According to the observer, he hadn’t. Amosun is now fighting without the cover he thought he had, and with a governor who remembers 2019 as a personal war, not just an election.
Chief Segun Osoba’s card is elder statesmanship. His joker should have been his ability to mediate. But the account is harsh: in 2015 he was expected to prosecute “Amosun Must Go” decisively, even to the point of splitting Egba votes with an SDP candidate, and he didn’t. He also refused to align with PDP after. The result is that in 2027, neither side fully trusts him. Neutrality in Ogun has become its own liability.
And then there is President Bola Tinubu. Everyone invoked his name. Everyone claimed he was behind them. The observer says he wasn’t. The observer points to Ondo 2020 as the clearest example of what happens when the Tinubu camp is divided: other players benefit. In that election, internal fractions within the Lagos political structure created space for Governor Akeredolu to consolidate on his own terms. The same dynamic, the observer argues, is now playing out in Ogun and will shape what happens next in 2027. If Abuja is not refereeing, then the fight reverts to Ogun’s own unresolved issues.
That is why the “stranger vs indigene” argument, while loud, is a distraction. The real fight is about unfinished business. It is about a governor who feels he was sabotaged twice and now has state power. It is about a senator who almost captured the legislature and is trying to convert federal visibility into a governorship. It is about a former governor who cannot accept that his anointing power is gone. It is about an elder who tried to stay above the fray and ended up below it.
The background that will shape the future is clear. First, structure still wins elections in Ogun, and Yayi proved he could build it. But structure leaks without money and without presidential cover. Second, personal memory is stronger than party ideology. The 2019 wound between Amosun and Abiodun has not healed, and it will define every APC primary meeting. Third, zoning pressure is real. Ogun West has never produced a governor. That moral argument gives Yayi oxygen, even as opponents use his Lagos history against him. Fourth, money and tactics matter. Dapo’s 2019 playbook was PDP-style and it worked. He will run it again, but this time against someone who also understands how to build a caucus.
So the intrigues for 2027 are already set. Yayi will try to prove his Assembly numbers were not a one-off and that he can turn Senate performance into statewide acceptance. Abiodun will try to make his first term too big to be challenged by old grudges. Amosun will try to remain kingmaker even as his kings fall. Osoba will try to be relevant without being blamed. And Tinubu will watch, because the lesson of Ondo is that when Lagos is divided, the states decide for themselves.
Ogun 2027 is not about where you were born. It is about who you stood with in 2015, who you fought in 2019, and whether you have paid those debts. Until those accounts are settled, the party will keep fighting itself, and the jokers will keep coming out.
