The UK government’s efforts to curb immigration may come with a hefty price tag, potentially costing the country up to $5.7 billion, according to internal Home Office analysis. This raises concerns about Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s promise to bring migration “under control” without harming the economy.
The proposed changes, part of Starmer’s sweeping immigration reforms, include shortening the period international graduates can stay in the UK from two years to 18 months and tightening English-language requirements for skilled-worker visas. Employers sponsoring foreign workers will also face a one-third increase in the immigration skills charge.
The Economic Risks
The Home Office assessment reveals the potential financial risks of these changes:
- Losses: The UK could be £1.2 billion worse off over five years, with losses potentially ballooning to £4.4 billion in a worst-case scenario.
- Modest Gains: Even under the most optimistic model, gains would be modest, about £800 million.
- Tuition Revenue: A fall in tuition revenue from international students and reduced income-tax receipts as fewer graduates stay on to work contribute to the projected loss.
University Leaders Speak Out
University leaders are concerned about the impact on communities that rely heavily on international education.
- Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International, says, “This assessment shows the real-world consequences for growth and prosperity.”
- Alan Johnson, former education secretary, warns that the policy could “close universities” if international enrollment falls.
Migration Advocates Criticize Short-Sightedness
Migration advocates argue that policymakers are prioritizing low migration numbers over broader economic and societal trade-offs.
- Sunder Katwala, head of the British Future think tank, says, “Yes, migration can strain housing and services, but it also fuels the economy through taxes, university fees, and spending.”
The UK government’s immigration crackdown has sparked debate about the economic and social implications. While the aim is to restore fairness to the immigration system, critics argue that the policy may ultimately harm the economy and British universities ¹
