The Nigerian Economic Dashboard @211125
This week, the NBS reported the sixth consecutive month of disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 16.05% in October 2025, fueling bets of another MPC rate cut next week. Elsewhere, the S&P reaffirms Nigeria’s credit rating at B–/B and upgrades the outlook to stable. In the markets, the naira depreciated in both the official and parallel windows despite an uptick in foreign reserves. Strong demand for fixed-income securities pushed yields lower across tenors for the week, while profit-taking dominated the equities market as investors continued rebalancing their portfolios. Looking ahead, we expect investors to remain cautious in the equities market, albeit attractive for re-entry into fundamentally sound stocks, while sentiment may stay bullish for fixed income securities as unmet subscriptions from the FGN Bond auction could flow into the secondary market.
Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation Sustains Moderation in October
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that headline inflation in Nigeria continues to grow at a slower pace, falling to 16.05% in October 2025 from 18.02% (YoY) in September and from 33.88% in the same period last year. This level of inflation growth was last observed in Nigeria in April 2022, when the inflation rate reached 16.82%, while Food inflation rose by 13.12% compared to 16.87% (YoY) in September. Core inflation dipped for a fourth consecutive month to 18.69% as volatility in energy prices remained stable in October. The moderation in consumer price growth in Nigeria aligns with the sustained stability in FX market conditions, base effect, and gains from the current harvest season. With the current inflation trajectory, we expect a 100bps cut in the monetary policy rate to bring the MPC’s policy rates closer to market rates and reduce borrowing and financing costs on real sector lending activities when the CBN meets next week (November 24-25).
S&P Reaffirms Nigeria’s Credit Rating at B–/B, Upgrades Outlook to Stable
S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed its long- and short-term foreign and local-currency ratings at “B–/B, ” but revised its outlook on Nigeria to positive from stable on November 14, 2025. S&P cite improved expectations due to reforms and measures taken, including fiscal consolidation, removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the FX market, stronger revenue mobilisation, and the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery. These outcomes are a symbol of the turning tide in investor sentiment and the restoration of confidence in Nigeria, driven by ongoing reforms; however, we note that:
Nigeria Eyes N1.49tn Electricity Export Revenue
Nigeria’s Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, announced that Nigeria successfully conducted a four-hour grid synchronisation test with 15 West African countries on November 8, 2025. The Federal Government now projects that nearly $1bn (about N1.49tn) in annual revenue from electricity exports to 15 West African Countries under the Economic Community of West African (ECOWAS) States sub-region from June 2026. While efforts are focused on improving liquidity from external markets, notable challenges remain on the domestic front, where the metering gap is wide: only 6.42 million of 11.82 million consumers are metered. Also, the power subsidy repayment framework remains unclear, and revenue collection efficiency from certain special customers, such as Ajaokuta Steel Co. Ltd and the host community, remains unimpressive. For every N100 electricity bill, the government loses about N23-N25, largely due to consumer unwillingness to pay in certain locations, consumer dissatisfaction with service, and low or zero remittances.
Table 1:
Table 2:
Commodity Market
Global Commodities
At the close of the week, the Global commodities market closed bearish. Gold and silver prices traded mixed amid robust US employment data, which diminished the likelihood of a December rate cut. Gold traded up while silver fell for the week. Brent and WTI crude futures declined as the US pursues a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine (see Table 3 below).
Table 3:
*Data for November 21, 2025, is as of 06:00 pm (Nigerian Time)
Local Commodities
Commodities in the AFEX market closed the week bullish. Cocoa prices increased as the production outlook declined. Maize prices rose again amid active buying and a gradual exit from the harvest season, thereby posing a potential risk of supply shortages (see Table 4 below).
Table 4:
AFEX, Proshare Research *Data for November 21, 2025, is as of 04:58 pm (Nigerian Time)
Lagos Commodities Market
Commodities at the Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange (LCFE) ended the week unchanged (see Table 5 below).
Table 5:
LCFE, Proshare Research *Data for November 21, 2025, is as of 04:58 pm (Nigerian Time)
Analysts expect market prices to improve next week on strong investor sentiment.
Fixed Income Market
Currency Market
This week, the naira depreciated in both the official and parallel markets. With a spread of N8.28/US$, the naira weakened in the official market by 98bps to close at N1,456.72/US$ from N1,442.43/US$ the previous week, while in the parallel market, the naira depreciated by 68bps from N1,455/US$ to N1,456/US$ week on week (see table 6 below).
Table 6:
Source: CBN, BDC, Proshare Research
Money Market
System liquidity tightened, driven by a contraction in the standing deposit facility (SDF), which declined to N1.15trn from N1.65trn. Despite the reduction in system liquidity, interbank rates closed mixed, with the overnight rate decreasing from last week’s level. The Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained steady at 24.50%, while the overnight rate (O/N) fell by 9bps from 24.92% to close at 24.83% week on week (see table 7 below).
Table 7:
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
We expect rates to decline as system liquidity improves next week, driven by maturing OMO bills.
Nigerian Treasury Bill
Bullish sentiments flooded the secondary market, pushing down the average benchmark yields across all segments. The average benchmark yield of the NTB section of the market decreased by 5bps from 17.00% to 16.95% week-on-week. Likewise, the OMO bill segment’s average benchmark yield fell by 4bps to close at 20.99% from 21.03% the prior week (see Table 8 below).
Table 8:
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
We expect rates to hover at the current levels.
Nigerian Treasury Bill Auction
Mid-week, the CBN conducted its second NTB auction for November, offering N700.00bn across three tenors. The total subscription reached N1.29trn, resulting in a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.85x. The CBN allotted 155.72% of the amount offered, which equals N1.03trn, N390.02bn more than the initial offer. Over-subscription was concentrated on the long-tenor bill, while the short- and mid-term maturities were undersubscribed. Stop rates for all maturities remained unchanged from the previous auction. (see Table 9 below).
Table 9:
Source: CBN, Proshare Research
FGN Bond Market
Mixed trading activity was observed in the FGN Bond market, however, with a bullish undertone as increased buying interest flooded both short- and long-dated papers. The average benchmark yield declined by 14bps, closing at 15.36% from 15.50% the previous week. Yields across the short- and long-end of the curve dropped by 4bps and 38bps to settle at 15.60% and 15.20%, respectively, while the yield of the mid-term maturity rose by 1bp to 15.43% from 15.42% week on week (see table 10 below).
Table 10:
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
We expect yields to fall as unmet subscriptions from next week’s FGN Bond auction in the primary market drive activities in the secondary market.
Equities Market
The Nigerian stock market extended its losing streak for the fourth week, with the market losing for the five trading days this week, amid widespread losses across sectors. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) depreciated by 2.24%, closing at 143,722.62 points, down from 147,013.59 points the previous week. Market capitalisation decreased to N91.41trn, compared to N93.50trn the week before, a 2.23% WTD decline, despite the additional listing of Chams Holding’s 1.96bn Ordinary shares on Monday, November 17, 2025.
This week, the NGX suspended trading in the shares of Aso Savings and Loans Plc on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, to enable the Company’s registrars and the Central Securities and Clearing System Plc to reconcile their books for the listing of the reconstructed shares on Nigerian Exchange Limited (see chart 1 below).
Chart 1:
Twenty (20) equities appreciated during the week, led by heavyweight like NCR (+60.55%), UACN (16.67%), IKEJAHOTEL (+15.83%), EUNISELL (+8.52%), JBERGER (+6.37%), NESTLE (+2.89%), CUSTODIAN (+1.01%), while sixty equities depreciated led by heavy weight like NEM (-12.75%), ACCESSCORP (-10.87%), DANGCEM (-10.00%), ENAMELWA (-10.00%), NAHCO (-9.78%), TRANSCORP (-9.09%), UBA (-7.75%%), OANDO (-7.30%), ZENITHBANK (-6.64%), UNILEVER (-6.12%), BERGER (-4.41%), DANGSUGAR (-3.62%), ARADEL (-2.64 %), PZ (-2.58%), NB (-2.14%), MTNN (-2.11%), NGXGROUP (-1.90%), GUINNESS (-1.76%), GTCO (-1.74%), and FIRSTHOLDCO (-0.81%).
A total turnover of 2.67bn shares worth N106.26bn in 107,998 deals was traded this week on NGX, in contrast to a total of 7.33bn shares valued at N156.43bn that exchanged hands last week in 134,383 deals.
The Financial Services Industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 1.82bn shares valued at N44.81bn traded in 45,297 deals; contributing 68.21% and 42.16% to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively. The Services Industry followed with 324.19m shares worth N1.76bn in 8,018 deals. Then the Oil and Gas Industry, with 143.19m shares worth N37.74bn in 7,788 deals.
Of the twenty indices under our coverage for the week, nineteen indices lost, led by the NGX Insurance Index, while the NGX Sovereign Bond Index is the only index that gained (see Table 11 below).
Table 11:
Source: NGX, Proshare Research
NASD OTC EXCHANGE – Unlisted Equities
The unlisted NASD OTC market, on the contrary, closed bullish this week, reversing some of last week’s losses, with the NSI increasing 0.51% to close at 3,631.52 points, up from 3,613.23 points the previous week. The total volume and value traded for the week increased significantly by 88.62% and 95.46%, respectively. The NASD market Capitalisation settled at N2.17trn.
The market downtick this week was driven by gains in AIRLIQ (+21.00%) and FCWAMCO (+11.76%), which outweigh the losses in AFRILAND (-4.78%), CSCS (-3.42%), IGI (-2.44%) and OKITIPUPA (-1.01%) (see Table 12 below).
Table 12:
Source: NASD, Proshare Research
Proshare Indices
The Proshare Memorandum Index closed bearish, underperforming the broad market index for the week. The float-adjusted index was down 4.33% to close at 597.10 points, while the price-weighted index fell 3.03% to close at 878.00 points (see Table 13 below).
Table 13:
We expect sustained profit-taking in the market next week on portfolio rebalancing and year-end seasonal selloffs.
