This week, the domestic macroeconomic space was dominated by the new N1.15 trn borrowing plan, oversubscription of the Eurobond issuance of $2.3 bn, new funding commitments to legacy projects, threats of US military intervention, and a sustained uptick in private sector activities. Markets were mostly down this week. Commodities were down due to supply-demand dynamics, the naira fell across both windows, yields fell across fixed income securities, including the stop rate on the 1-year bill at the NTB auction, and equities extended their losing streak this week. In the coming week, we expect OMO maturities to boost system liquidity, which may further weigh on yields. Meanwhile, equities may also sustain selloffs, with selective buying interest.
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Economy
Private Sector Momentum Strengthens in October – Stanbic IBTC PMI
Nigeria’s private sector recorded stronger growth momentum in October 2025, according to the latest Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report. The headline PMI rose to 54.0, up from 53.4 in September, indicative of sustained monthly improvement in overall business conditions. According to the October PMI report, output growth reached a six-month high, supported by rising new orders and the launch of new products across several industries. The continued improvement is closely tied to moderating inflation, a stronger naira, and the CBN MPC rate cut, which is expected to ease financial pressures on firms. However, the PMI report noted that power outages and payment delays posed as major hindrances to operations, leading to accumulated backlogs in some sectors. We expect sustained private-sector expansion to impact strong GDP growth performance amid stable economic conditions and growing business confidence.
Tinubu Seeks Senate Approval for N1.15trn Domestic Borrowing Plan
President Bola Tinubu has requested Senate approval to raise N1.15trn in domestic borrowing to help finance the 2025 national budget, aiming to close the current funding gap. The request follows Nigeria’s latest Eurobond issuance of $2.3bn, which was oversubscribed by over $10.65bn despite the US designation of Nigeria as ‘Country of Particular Concern’, reflecting renewed investor confidence. The President had gotten a nod from the Senate for the Federal Government to raise $2.347bn from the international capital market, marking a dual borrowing approach to meet fiscal needs. Meanwhile, the World Bank is expected to approve a $1bn loan later in the year (in December). The World Bank notes that this is to support ongoing economic reforms, investment initiatives, and job creation efforts. According to the 2025 budget framework, total new external borrowing is projected at N1.8trn ($1.2bn), while the overall fiscal deficit stands at N9.28trn.
President Tinubu Presides Over FEC Meeting with Key Decisions Made
Nigeria’s President Tinubu presided over the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting for the first time since July, overseeing key appointments and major project approvals. Key appointments included Bernard Doro (Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction) and Kingsley Ude (Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation). Reports indicate that during the meeting, approvals were granted for roads and other infrastructure projects exceeding N400bn. Some of the road projects include N43bn for the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway Phase II, Section II and the award of the 1,068km Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway and other road projects. In the aviation sector, the government approved the concessioning of the Port Harcourt International Airport to private operators, the Construction of a permanent NAMA headquarters in Abuja and a business case for biometric systems in all Nigerian airports. While the meeting highlights the administration’s focus on infrastructure development and sector target initiatives, analysts say it is essential to prioritise timely project execution and fiscal accountability amid limited resources. They note that some of the approved projects were originally awarded under previous administrations but remained work-in-progress, still necessitating revaluation and re-award of projects.
Table 1:
Table 2:
Commodity Market
Global Commodities
The market recorded a decline across global commodities this week, but maintained a robust year-to-date return, excluding crude oil prices. Gold fell due to China’s removal of the tax rebate, which consequently decreased demand among retailers. Brent and WTI crude oil prices fell for the week on concerns over a potential supply glut, even as sanctions on Russian companies beginning to bite (see Table 3 below).
Table 3:
*Data for November 07, 2025, is as of 05:17 pm (Nigerian time)
Local Commodities
Commodities in the AFEX market have seen price dips in the recent week. The current week closed on a bearish note, as market prices continued to crash across commodities. Traders sold off holdings, which led to decline in most commodity prices, following favourable harvest conditions. Cocoa prices dipped on prospects of improved production (see Table 4 below).
Table 4:
AFEX, Proshare Research *Data for November 07, 2025, is as of 04:04 pm (Nigerian time)
Lagos Commodities Market
Commodities at the Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange (LCFE) ended the week unchanged (see Table 5 below).
Table 5:
LCFE, Proshare Research *Data for November 07, 2025, is as of 04:04 pm (Nigerian time)
Analysts expect the market prices to improve in the coming week on strong investor sentiment.
Fixed Income Market
Currency Market
Despite appreciating by 1bp and 34bps respectively in the official and parallel markets on Friday, the naira depreciated over the week. In the official market, the naira depreciated by 103bps to settle at N1,436.58/US$ from N1,421.73/US$ the previous week.
Depreciating by 103bps, the naira closed at N1,455/US$ in the parallel market from N1,440/US$ week-on-week (W-o-W) (see table 6 below).
Table 6:
Source: CBN, BDC, Proshare Research
Money Market
This week, system liquidity remained positive, driven by the elevated Standing Deposit Facility (SDF), which rose to N4.84trn. A further mopping of excess liquidity from the system occurred today through the OMO auction, resulting in a mixed interbank rate close. The Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained steady at 24.50% while the overnight rate (O/N) declined by 7bps to close at 24.79% week-on-week (see table 7 below).
Table 7:
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
We expect rates to hover at their current level.
Nigerian Treasury Bill
Earlier today, the CBN held an OMO auction, offering a total of N600.00bn for short-term bills (53-day and 81-day tenors). The auction received a total subscription of N1.59trn, with the CBN allotting N1.44trn across the two maturities. The 53-day bill was accepted at 21.64%, with N32.00bn allotted (the exact amount subscribed), while the 81-day bill was received at 21.83%, with N1.12trn allotted (Subscription: N1.27trn).
Bullish sentiment dominated the secondary market this week as average benchmark yields declined across all market segments. Declining by 29bps, the NTB segment’s benchmark yield settles at 17.28% from 17.47% the previous week. Similarly, the OMO segment’s average benchmark yield fell by 2bps from 21.43% to 21.41% week-on-week (see Table 8 below).
Table 8:
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
We expect rates to fall as bullish investor sentiment drives activity in the secondary market.
Nigerian Treasury Bill Auction
The first NTB auction for November was held mid-week by the CBN, with a total offer of N650.00bn across three maturities. The auction received total subscriptions of N1.18trn, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.81x, and the CBN allotted 84.04% (N546.24bn) of the offered amount. Over-subscription was concentrated on the long-dated bill, while the short- and mid-dated bills were undersubscribed. Stop rates for the short- and mid-tenors remained unchanged from their position in the previous auction, whereas the stop rate on the long-dated tenor decreased to 16.04% from 16.14% in the prior auction (see Table 9 below).
Table 9:
Source: CBN, Proshare Research
FGN Bond Market
The week commenced with the monthly week-long FGN Savings Bond auction for November, and mid-week the DMO successfully sold US$2.35bn in Nigerian Eurobonds across two maturities (2036: 10-year, and 2046: 20-year). The subscription for the Eurobond reached US$13.0bn with a bid-to-cover ratio of 5.53x.
The bullish trend in the FGN Bond market persists, as the average benchmark yield dropped 12 basis points to close at 15.66% from 15.77% the previous week (W-o-W). Yields across the short- and mid-end of the curve fell by 29bps and 16bps to close at 15.94% and 15.85%, respectively, while the yield at the long-end of the curve remained flat at 15.57%. (see table 10 below).
Table 10:
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
We expect yields to fall as bullish investor sentiment drives the FGN Bond market.
Equities Market
The Nigerian equities market traded bearish this week, extending last week’s losses, with the market losing for the five trading days. Widespread selloffs across the sectors led to the decline in the market. As such, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) depreciated 2.99%, closing at 149,524.81 points, down from 154,126.45 points the previous week. Market capitalisation decreased to N95trn, compared to N97.83trn the week before, a 2.89% WTD decrease, slightly lower than the NGXASI decline due to the additional listing of Wema Bank’s 4.55bn share from its private placement.
As part of market activities, the NGX activated the code for trading in the Initiates Plc’s Rights Issue of 178m ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N7.00 per share in the ratio of one (1) new ordinary share for every existing five (5) ordinary shares held as at the close of business on Friday, August 1, 2025 (see chart 1 below).
Chart 1:
Twenty equities appreciated during the week, led by heavyweight like EUNISELL (+20.17%), HONYFLOUR (+9.50), OKOMUOIL (+2.78%), GUINNESS (+2.17%), NIDF (+1.77%), NAHCO (+0.48%), STANBIC (+0.31%), while seventy-five equities depreciated, led by heavy weight like SKYAVN (-18.99%), BERGER (-17.41%), OANDO (-16.75%), TRANSCORP (-12.00%), ACCESSCORP (-10.02%), NASCON (-10.00%), BETAGLAS (-9.99%), NNFM (-9.98%), NEM (-9.84%), UACN (-9.77%), MECURE (-9.77%), NESTLE (-9.66%), CUSTODIAN (-9.31%), ETI (-8.86%), JBERGER (-8.50%), MTNN (-8.29%), ARADEL (-8.25%), DANGSUGAR (-8.10%), WAPCO (-6.43%), NB (-6.29%), GTCO (-5.03%), FIDSON (-4.76%), ZENITHBANK (-4.76%), PZ (-4.34%), UNILEVER (+2.60%), AIRTELAFRI (-1.75%), ETERNA (-1.39%), and UBA (-0.12%).
A total turnover of 3.58bn shares worth N107.01bn in 146,429 deals was traded this week on NGX, in contrast to a total of 7.48bn shares valued at N145.43bn that exchanged hands last week in 159,487 deals.
The Financial Services Industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 2.95bn shares valued at N65.90bn traded in 62,817 deals; contributing 82.39% and 61.59% to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively. The services Industry followed with 147.33m shares worth N1.51bn in 7,656 deals. Then the Consumer Goods, with 147.31m shares worth N11.20bn in 18,644 deals.
Of the twenty indices under our coverage for the week, nineteen indices lost, led by the NGX Growth Index, while the NGX Sovereign Bond Index closed flat (see Table 11 below).
Table 11:
Source: NGX, Proshare Research
NASD OTC EXCHANGE – Unlisted Equities
The unlisted NASD OTC market also closed bullish this week, reversing last week’s losses, with the NSI increasing 0.98% to close at 3,661.07 points, up from 3,625.45 points the previous week. The total volume and value traded for the week decreased by 99.96% and 99.47%, respectively. The NASD market Capitalisation settled at N2.19trn.
The market uptick was driven by sustained buying interests in NASD (+20.98%), FOODCONCEPT (+9.97%), OKITIPUPA (+9.95%), AFRILANDPROP (+7.91%), and FCWAMCO (+6.86%), which net off the selloffs in CSCS (-5.44%) and GEO-FLUID (-3.45%) (see Table 12 below).
Table 12:
Source: NASD, Proshare Research
Proshare Indices
The Proshare Memorandum Index closed bearish, extending last week’s losses, with both indexes overperforming the NGXASI for the week. The float-adjusted index was down 2.51% to 623.17 points, and the price-weighted index fell 0.76% to close at 934.91 points (see Table 13 below).
Table 13:
While we expect the profit-taking to continue next week, we may see selective interest in some tickers amidst portfolio rebalancing
Source: Proshare.co
