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Non-oil Revenue Collection in October 2021 Declines By 13%

Total non-oil revenue saw a m/m decline of -13% m/m to NGN474bn in October ’21 and was -9% lower than the pro-rata monthly budget. The decline in non-oil revenue was attributed to declines in all major components: company income tax (CIT), customs and excise duties, value-added tax (VAT), and FGN independent revenue. The largest decline was recorded in FGN independent revenue, which saw a -45% m/m reduction, followed by customs and exercise duties, which recorded a -21% m/m decline.

VAT represented 36% of the total non-oil revenue collected in the reference month. It saw a -4% m/m decline and a 20% y/y increment. CIT, customs and excise duties, FGN independent revenue and others accounted for 32%, 25%, 6% and 1% of total non-oil revenue respectively.

The minister of finance disclosed in her approved 2022 budget presentation that as of November ’21, aggregate non-oil tax revenues totalled NGN1.6trn. We note here that this is a preliminary figure which is subject to change following the conclusion of the CBN’s reconciliation process.

 In October ’21, the non-oil-to-oil revenue mix was 50.3:49.7, close to the 50.6:49.4 envisaged in the 2021 appropriation act.

 On the other hand, oil revenue rose by 52.5% m/m to NGN468.7bn but fell short of the budget benchmark by -7%. Crude oil closed October ’21 at USD84/b, compared with the government’s budget assumption of USD40. In comparison to the 1.86 million barrels per day (mbpd) envisaged in the budget, crude oil output was put at 1.4mbpd in October ’21 by OPEC (based on secondary sources).

The CBN’s monthly report for October ’21 shows some improvements in the federation’s gross revenue, supported by strong oil revenue. According to the report, gross revenue rose by 10.4% m/m to NGN942.3bn in October ’21 and was c.8% lower than the pro-rata monthly budget. Of the gross amount, the federal government’s retained revenue amounted to N331.6bn, c.50% below its programmed benchmark. The FGN had an ambitious revenue target of NGN7.99trn in 2021, with a significant projected deficit of NGN5.6trn.

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