Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.03%(year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2021, showing a sustained positive growth over the last four quarters since the recession witnessed in 2020. Output contracted by -6.10% and -3.62% in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 under the Covid pandemic. The Q3 2021 growth rate was higher than the -3.62% growth rate recorded in Q3 2020 by 7.65% points and lower than 5.01% recorded in Q2 2021 by 0.98% points, indicative of a continuous recovery. Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at 11.07% in Q3 2021 compared to Q2 2021, reflecting a higher economic activity than the preceding quarter.
In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N45,113,448.06 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N39,089,460.61 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 15.41%. The nominal GDP growth rate in Q3 2021 was higher relative to 3.39% growth recorded in the third quarter of 2020 as well as the 14.99% growth recorded in the preceding quarter. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.
The Oil Sector
The nation in the third quarter of 2021 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.57 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.67mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 by 0.10mbpd and lower than the second quarter 2021 production volume of 1.61mbpd by 0.05mbpd.
Real growth of the oil sector was -10.73% (year-on-year) in Q3 2021 indicating an increase by 3.16% points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Growth increased by 1.92% points when compared to Q2 2021 which was -12.65%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 12.05% in Q3 2021. The Oil sector contributed 7.49% to total real GDP in Q3 2021, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 and up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.73% and 7.42% respectively.
The Non-Oil Sector
The non-oil sector grew by 5.44% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q3 2021). This rate was higher by 7.95% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2020 and 1.30% point lower than the second quarter of 2021. This sector was driven in third quarter 2021 mainly by trade, Information and Communication (Telecommunication); other drivers include Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Agriculture (Crop Production); and Transportation and Storage (Road Transport), accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.51% to the nation’s GDP in third quarter 2021, higher from share recorded in the third quarter of 2020 which was 91.27% and lower than the second quarter of 2021 recorded as 92.58%
