Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 16.05% in October 2025 Despite Slight Month-on-Month Uptick

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Nigeria recorded a notable moderation in headline inflation in October 2025, as the rate eased to 16.05%, down from 18.02% in September 2025. This represents a month-to-month (MoM) decline of 1.96% points, reflecting an improvement in price stability during the review period.

On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, headline inflation slowed significantly by 17.82 percentage points compared to 33.88% reported in October 2024 (with CPI base year: November 2009 = 100). This marks a major deceleration in the inflation cycle and highlights progress in restoring macroeconomic stability.

However, inflation pressures remain evident at the month-on-month level, where the headline index rose by 0.93% in October 2025, a rise from 0.72% in September, indicating that while annual inflation is easing, short-term price pressures persist due to cost-push factors and seasonal market adjustments. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 128.9 points in October 2025, up from 127.7 points in September, representing a 1.2-point increase in average price levels across the economy.

The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending October 2025, compared to the average for the previous twelve-month period, was 22.02%, representing a 10.24% decrease from the 32.26% recorded in October 2024.

The Food inflation rate in October 2025 stood at 13.12% on a YoY basis. This was 26.04% points lower compared to the rate recorded in October 2024 (39.16%). The significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year. However, on a MoM basis, the Food inflation rate in October 2025 was -0.37%, up by 1.21% compared to September 2025 (-1.57%). The increase can be attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of Onions, Fruits, Shrimp, Groundnuts, Vegetables, and Meat, among others.

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 18.69% in October 2025 on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, representing a decline of 9.68% compared to the 28.37% recorded in October 2024. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the Core Inflation rate was 1.416% in October 2025, down by 0.001% compared to September 2025 (1.417%).

The moderation in consumer price growth in Nigeria aligns with the sustained stability in FX market conditions, base effect, and gains from the current harvest season. This indicates that Nigeria is now experiencing both external and domestic price recovery. Collectively, these conditions increase the likelihood of improving aggregate demand and feeding into GDP growth acceleration. With the current inflation trajectory, considerations for a monetary policy rate cut remain high when the CBN meets later this month, on November 24, 2025 (see dashboard below)