Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Moderated to 15.06% in February 2026 Despite Rebound in Monthly Price Pressures
Nigeria’s inflation rate recorded a slight moderation in February 2026, although month-on-month price pressures resurfaced after the sharp contraction observed in January. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 130.0 in February 2026.
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As such, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, headline inflation eased marginally to 15.06% in February 2026, down from 15.10% in January 2026, reflecting a 0.04% decline. The moderation is more pronounced than in the same period last year, with the headline inflation rate 11.21 percentage points lower than the 26.27% recorded in February 2025.
However, month-on-month (MoM) data indicates a renewed increase in price momentum. Headline inflation rose to 2.01% in February, reversing the -2.88% contraction recorded in January. This suggests that the average price level increased during the month, signalling a partial rebound in consumer prices after the temporary decline seen at the start of the year.
On a year-on-year basis, the food inflation rate stood at 12.12% in February 2026, significantly lower than the 26.98% recorded in February 2025, representing a 14.86% decline. However, on a MoM basis, the Food inflation rate in February 2026 was 4.69%, up 10.70% from January 2026 (-6.02%). The increase can be attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of Beans, Carrots, Okazi Leaf, cassava tuber, Crayfish, Millet Flour, Yam Flour, Snails, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – dried ungrinded, cow peas, etc.
The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026, relative to the previous twelve-month average, was 19.08%, which was 18.31 % points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2025 (37.40%).
The Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 15.88% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in February 2026, down from 25.66% in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 0.89% in February 2026, up by 2.58% compared to January 2026 (-1.69%). The average twelve-month annual inflation rate was 22.00% for the twelve months ending February 2026, which was 5.25% points lower than the 27.25% recorded in February 2025.
The sharp increase in monthly food inflation highlights ongoing supply-side sensitivities in the domestic food market. However, analysts note that several factors could influence inflation dynamics in the coming months. Exchange rate movements, global commodity price trends, and domestic supply conditions, particularly in the agricultural sector, remain important drivers that could shape inflation’s trajectory. As a result, while the broader inflation trend appears to be moderating, maintaining price stability will require continued macroeconomic vigilance and supportive policy coordination (see dashboard below)
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