Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Increases by 26.72% YoY in September 2023 as Food Inflation Rises by 30.64%
All Items Index8
In September 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to elative to the August 2023 headline inflation
On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.94% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022, which was 20.77%. This shows that the headline inflation e (year-on-year basis) increased in September 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., September 2022).
Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.10%, which was 1.08% lower than the rate recorded in August 2023 (3.18%). This means that in September 2023, the rate of increase in the average price level was less than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2023.
The contributions of items on divisional level to the increase in the Headline index are presented below:
The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve-month period ending September 2023 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 22.90%, showing a 5.47% increase compared to 17.43% recorded in September 2022.
Urban Inflation
On a year-on-year basis, in September 2023, the Urban inflation rate was 28.68%, this was 7.43% points higher compared to the 21.25% recorded in September 2022. On a month-onmonth basis, the Urban inflation rate was 2.24% in September 2023, this was 1.05% points lower compared to August 2023 (3.29%). The corresponding twelve-month average for the Urban inflation rate was 24.10% in September 2023. This was 6.16% points higher compared to the 17.94% reported in September 2022.
Rural Inflation
The Rural inflation rate in September 2023 was 24.94% on a year-on-year basis; this was 4.62% points higher compared to the 20.32% recorded in September 2022. On a month-onmonth basis, the Rural inflation rate in September 2023 was 1.96%, down by 1.12% points compared to August 2023 (3.08%). The corresponding twelve-month average for the Rural inflation rate in September 2023 was 21.79%. This was 4.85% higher compared to the 16.94% recorded in September 2022 .
Food Inflation
The Food inflation rate in September 2023 was 30.64% on a year-on-year basis, which was 7.30% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022 (23.34%). The rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of Oil and fat, Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other Tubers, Fish, Fruit, Meat, Vegetables and Milk, Cheese, and Eggs.
On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.45%, this was 1.41% lower compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 (3.87%). The decline in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis was caused by a fall in the rate of increase in the average prices of Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Bread and cereals, Fruits, and Fish. The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending September 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 25.65%, which was 6.29% points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2022 (19.36%).
All Items Less Farm Produce
Before now, “all items less farm produces” is referred to as the Core inflation. This was because the prices of items that constitute energy were regulated by the government e.g, Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS). Due to the deregulation of the sector and the removal of the fuel subsidy, all the items that constitute energy are now determined by market forces and hence their prices are termed volatiles. Therefore, Core inflation is referred to as all items index less farm produces and energy.
The “All items less farm produces and energy” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produces and energy stood at 21.84% in September 2023 on a year-onyear basis; up by 4.35% when compared to the 17.49% recorded in September 2022. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger Transport by Road, Passenger Transport by Air, Medical Services, Repair of Furniture, Maintenance, and repair of personal transport equipment, etc. On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 2.22% in September 2023. It stood at 2.18% in August 2023, up by 0.05%. The average twelve-month annual inflation rate was 19.55% for the twelve months ending September 2023; this was 4.48% points higher than the 15.07% recorded in September 2022.
State Profile
In analysing price movements under this section, it should be noted that CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States and locations. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular Food or Non-Food item may differ from State to State making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.
All Items Inflation
In September 2023, all items inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (32.95%), Rivers (30.63%), Lagos (30.04%), while Borno (21.05%), Jigawa (22.39%) and Benue (23.22%) recorded the slowest rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, however, September 2023 recorded the highest increases in Taraba (3.39%), Bauchi (3.38%), Niger (3.28%), while Borno (0.71%), Ekiti (1.05%) and Benue (1.13%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.
Food Inflation
In September 2023, Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (39.37%), Rivers (35.95%), and Lagos (35.66%), while Jigawa (23.41%), Borno (25.29%) and Sokoto (25.38%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis. On a monthon-month basis, however, September 2023 Food inflation was highest in Akwa Ibom (4.23%), Niger (4.19%), and Ebonyi (3.74%), while Cross River (0.31%), Borno (0.62%) and Bayelsa (0.73%) recorded the slowest rise in inflation on month-on-month basis
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