Nigerians in 2024 should be prepared for an 18 months economic recovery period. This will be accompanied by a high interest rate regime to tame inflation and a continued scarcity of FX in NFEM with succor from the parallel market. During this period, Its important to constantly hedge to preserve value by moving excess liquidity and profits into assets that retain value.
Our benchmark recommendation for business operations to ensure 2024 year end value retention;
- =N=/$ is between 1,500-1,800 depending on the sector of the economy you operate.
- With a debt burden of US$ 130 billion being serviced by 95% of government revenues and debt servicing now exceeding both recurrent and capital expenditure, Nigeria’s debt levels are now clearly unsustainable. Add to this US$10billion form the 2024 budget deficit and the question begs; is Nigeria heading the default direction of Ghana, Zambia and Ethiopia?
- The discussion on restructuring for both domestic and external debt must commence alongside the ongoing economic reforms and revenue drive, to avoid Paris and London club imposition.
- The fundamentals of the Nigerian economy remain sound. Poor economic leadership, has in the past failed to realize potential and grow the economy. With a new and highly rated Economic Management Team in place, expectations are high.
- The success or failure of our business projections and economy will depend on their commitment and sincerity to implement their laid out reform policies. The goal is to drive our economy out of stagflation and reach sustainable GDP growth targets.
