The relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu appears to be fraying, with sources within the All Progressives Congress (APC) confirming a subtle but widening gulf between the two leaders.
Despite neither Tinubu nor Sanwo-Olu publicly acknowledging the rift, observers have noted an unusual frostiness during the President’s recent visit to Lagos.
According to eyewitnesses, Tinubu pointedly refused to acknowledge or shake hands with Sanwo-Olu upon arrival at the Murtala Muhammed Airport, instead greeting Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat. The President’s media team allegedly issued strict instructions to edit or suppress footage of the airport arrival, particularly the greeting scene, to avoid fueling speculation about the strained ties.
Sanwo-Olu was also reportedly sidelined from escorting the President to his Bourdillon residence in Ikoyi, a role traditionally reserved for the sitting governor of Lagos. Instead, Hamzat accompanied Tinubu, further underscoring the altered dynamics between the two men.
The governor’s absence from key events during the President’s visit, including the 50th anniversary celebration of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), raised eyebrows. Sanwo-Olu’s media team attributed his absence to a prior engagement, but many observers found this explanation insufficient given the significance of the event.
Sources within the Villa and Lagos APC confirmed that Sanwo-Olu’s name was initially omitted from the official protocol manifest for receiving the President, and it took last-minute lobbying to get him included. The absence of Lagos APC stalwarts, particularly members of the influential Governors Advisory Council (GAC), from the Bourdillon residence further fueled speculation about the strained relationship.
While no official reason has been given for the simmering discord, analysts speculate that tensions may stem from policy disagreements, alleged lapses in loyalty, or unspoken differences over Lagos 2027 succession plans. Some point to whispers that certain appointments and decisions taken by Sanwo-Olu since his re-election have not sat well with the President.
The visible chill in relations between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu could have broader implications for Lagos APC unity and 2027 political permutations, especially as President Tinubu prepares to consolidate control ahead of a likely re-election campaign. A former commissioner in Lagos noted that the President feels let down in certain ways and doesn’t forget easily.
The rift between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu may fracture the Lagos APC machinery, long regarded as the crown jewel of Tinubu’s political empire. Political watchers are intrigued by Sanwo-Olu’s conspicuous non-attendance at the APC National Policy and Performance Review Summit in Abuja, where the President was formally endorsed for a second term.
Some believe Sanwo-Olu may have been barred from the Presidential Villa in the aftermath of a politically sensitive attempt to unseat the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa. The President reportedly summoned key stakeholders and ordered the immediate reinstatement of Obasa, citing the need to preserve party unity and political stability in Lagos.
For the President and his allies, Sanwo-Olu’s manoeuvre was seen as a miscalculation and a betrayal, an attempt to alter the delicate political architecture Tinubu has painstakingly built in Lagos since 1999. Since then, relations between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu have remained frosty, with the latter increasingly sidelined in core national party activities.
Further evidence of this strained relationship came during the build-up to the APC local government primaries ahead of the July 12, 2025, council elections in Lagos. Sanwo-Olu’s influence was conspicuously diminished, with none of the 57 candidates who emerged for chairmanship positions across Lagos’ local governments and Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) directly associated with the governor’s camp.
The GAC, the highest decision-making body in Lagos APC, was also stripped of its usual clout, with a directive reportedly coming from the presidency instructing that no special preferences be granted to any governor or GAC member in nominating candidates. This decision is seen as part of a broader political reconfiguration within the APC, aimed at consolidating power at the centre ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Analysts point to a recent wave of political recalibration in the state, with a number of local government aspirants previously believed to be loyal to the governor being edged out during the screening phase. These developments have fueled speculation that Sanwo-Olu may be serving out his final term without the full support of the political machinery that ensured his emergence in 2019 and re-election in 2023.
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has formally dismissed media reports linking its investigation of Ms. Aisha Achimugu to any political undercurrents involving Sanwo-Olu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. However, the development has nonetheless cast a long shadow over Sanwo-Olu’s already strained relationship with President Tinubu
