Will Governor Ademola Adeleke’s populist programmes and pronouncements stand the test of time in Osun State of today?
In Osun State, there is a new dawn. The emergence of Governor Demola Adeleke as governor of Osun State in the last governorship election has not only raised a new hope for the masses for a better living , it has also confirmed the potency of their voting power to change government at will if adjudged incompetent .
Moreover, since he assumed the leadership of the state, Adeleke’s personality and disposition seems to have created a new thinking that the bar in governance is about to be raised ,if not already raised according to his admirers .
Despite the delay on the appointment of his commissioners after about six months in office which is generating an uneasy calm among the politicians ,the governor’s rating , no doubt , seems to be on the surge , perhaps hitting the roof ; his activities so far have also passed a vote of confidence on him .
To the set of people behind this thinking ,their excitements were prompted by his 100 days performance and pronouncements in office . No doubt , Governor Ademola Adeleke’s outlook and resolve to succeed are breaking new grounds.
Adeleke’s 100 Days Scorecards and Pronouncements
The governor is rekindling hope with his actions. Shortly after coming to office made provision for potable water in each of 333 wards in the state and constructed 20-kilometre roads across the state. He said that the administration had presented the sum of N518 million to 40 communities for infrastructure development. The governor said he had embarked on the rehabilitation and construction of roads across the state. The governor also revealed that he would be giving bond cheques to the contributory pensioners in the state on March 10.
In the area of health, Adeleke said under the Imole surgical and medical outreach, 2000 persons in each of the nine federal constituencies in the state would benefit from free medical care. He said this was in addition to the enrollment of 3000 indigenes on the Osun Health Insurance Scheme (OHIS).
The governor also said that since his assumption of office, he had made provision for transformers and other electrical materials in communities without electricity in an ongoing project.
Again, the governor, in another show of solidarity with workers and retirees, approved the release of pensioners gratuity. Adeleke said he had started the payment of salaries and pension arrears from January 2016, owed by the past administration. This will surely bring succor to retirees, workers and their dependents.
There are efforts also by the government to tap into the boundless agricultural potentials of the state. At the moment, the sector contributes 38 per cent of the Gross State Product, GDP and directly and indirectly employs over 70 per cent of the of the state’s workforce.
He said in a bid to ensure food security in the state, he had approved subsidies on fertilisers and other farm inputs for farmers in the state. For maximum benefits, Osun State is expected to leverage on its agricultural assets, productivity, back to school scheme, collaboration and stimulation of growth for the good of the state.
He promised that in the next few months, he would embark on robust delivery of services in the area of climate change action plans for job creation.
Adeleke said that he would also focus on tourism and entrainment, and the application of telemedicine to expand healthcare access for artisans, among others.“To that end, Osun people should expect more robust delivery of services as well as new initiatives,” he said.
The governor, no doubt, knows what the stakeholders particularly value or the critical success factors and hit the targets .Sequel to the above , he has been adjudged a gold medalist . Everywhere, Adeleke is being hailed for his uncommon leadership and courage.
However, not everybody is optimistic about Adeleke’s capability to deliver and outperform his predecessors . Will Governor Adeleke’s populist programmes and pronouncements stand the test of time ? Will Governor Adeleke not exhaust himself very soon? These are the questions waiting for answers but difficult to answer.
Consequently, some people on the other side of the pole believed the current exuberance displayed in some quarters is unexpected and ridiculous ; to them ,it is not only raising some critical questions but whimsical.
No doubt , the jubilation after the supreme declaration and confirmation of Adeleke , obviously is to tactically demonstrate their annoyance towards the immediate past administration of Governor Gboyega Oyetola who was equally applauded at the early stage of his administration and to welcome Adeleke , and to welcome the new sheriff in town or the “new messiah” .
But some are warning the governor himself to be cautious in his condemnation of his predecessors because he could suffer the same fate before or after his four years in office. They believed those behind the jubilation was not in any way different from those who celebrated Rauf Aregbesola ,Oyetola and Bisi Akande and called them the best governors but later condemned them for their selfish interests .
Before bench marking his achievements with his predecessors and adjudging him the best- in –class , his admirers are warned to watch him carefully between two or more years before buying into a mere dummy .The belief is that bench marking any government with another within 100 days in office and adjudging it to be outperforming may nothing but sentimental and superficial .
The key concern is how sustainable is what the critics considered the populist programme of the new governor. This is the crux of their concern . Does the governor have the pedigree to make the difference and outperform his predecessors? First, Demola Adeleke is believed not to be a tested hand whether in the private or public business .Even when he replaced his brother in the senate he did not demonstrate any extra-ordinary quality or idea to justify the current optimism .
Moreover , the new governor may be confronted with more enormous challenges than those that confronted his predecessors , at least with the economy currently heading down to comatose. Surely ,the new governor has many battles to fight in the next four years .
Battling Demanding Strategic Position of Osun
A look at the state’s current highly demanding strategic position which are the outcomes of harsh macro and micro environment , meager resources , uninspiring leadership capability and inordinate stakeholders’ influence and expectations on the fortunes of the state , further confirms the above fear around him .
Although Adeleke has touched the critical success factors or what the state stakeholders particularly valued and shown the love for them to continue but the current strategic position of the state is not that attractive to enable the prevailing optimism without caution ,particularly with the controversial pedigree of Adeleke .
Considering the heavy burden of loan on ground ,low internal generating revenue potentials and heavy reliance on federal allocation ,that is almost among the least ,how does the governor hope to live up to the hope and expectations already created by him? Where is the blueprint for his turnaround of the state ? In this era of a knowledge driven-economy ,what does he want to tap on to drive his administration and deliver better values to the populace since knowledge is about learning and experience ? These are the imperative questions waiting for answers .
Definitely , the above are very challenging . The governor will need to do a number of the following to change the current strategic position of the state :Cut down the domestic fiscal debt, refinance short-term foreign debt with lower rate foreign instrument, bring in Private Public Partnerships, bring down recurrent expenditure as a proportion of its IGR ,increase IGR by promoting larger investment activities and optimize the States balance sheet by releasing liquidity where possible and improving results per naira spent on projects and programme, balance the excessive demands of civil servants and political office holders relate to the rest stakeholders who are the majority and reduce commercial financial exposure of the State’s treasury.
This ugly strategic position of the state is palpable and could be pinned down to the less conducive potential and existing impacts of external environment ,internal environment and absence strong strategic capability needed and necessary to make the difference ; moreover , with the experience from the past leadership , the influence and expectations of its stakeholders’ over the progress of the state so far have not been palatable .
A detailed analysis of the strategic issues raised above will shed better light on the enormous tasks before Adeleke , which is source of the fear expressed by some analysts on his ambition to outperform others . Let’s first of all look at the environment and the challenges posed by it to the current and incumbent governor of the state . Organizations ,whether private or public , depend upon their environments for their survival ; both macro and micro environmental factors supply both opportunities and threats . Environments, in their widest , include political, economic, social, technological and legal factors as well as ecological ones.
First , politically , Osun state is in the opposition ,and the only state in the south west where the tribe men of Mr President voted against him . First , it will be difficult to enjoy any tangible federal presence except the president is magnanimous enough for forget this .
Economically ,for the past few years the tight monetary and fiscal environments have made things difficult for the government at centre while the state and the local governments are catching the cold as most of them depend mostly on the centre . Skyrocketing inflations , weak foreign exchange and its instability as well as the less impressive Gross Domestic Product ,GDP, remain the major sources of headache in addition to insecurity issues to the governments at three levels . The latest is the recent subsidy removal.
No doubt , these will continue to fuel agitations for increase in salaries and infrastructural facilities . The latest now is the removal of the fuel subsidy .For these , many governors are now boxed to a tight corner while public agitations continue endlessly .
The influence of the state’s immediate or internal environment and its leadership are equally critical to any governor’s or government’s capability to deliver good dividends of democracy .
For Osun state, the internal environment just like the macro environment is not equally attractive to give the state an edge other states in Nigeria or allow any average leader to outperform. The most important among these are the resources that each states has or can call upon as well as the capabilities of its leaders.
Osun is a practically agrarian state with virtually no industrial potential to be depended upon for taxation and employment generation . The state consequently depends largely on its meager portion of federal allocation and loans for its survival. The only opportunities are the potential for agro allied industries as well as its strategic location in the South West which has not been exploited by any administration in the past optimally .
But while resources are certainly important, how a leadership employs and deploys its resources in the form of capabilities is actually the most critical challenge for a long-term survival and Osun state has not been lucky to get the leadership that is prepared for the prevailing challenges . Most of those who were fortunate to lead the state in the past appeared to be less prepared for the job and rarely without any concrete plan to build the state with a point of view of its future competitiveness.
. A leadership that is prepared to build is usually armed with concrete and clearly defined purposes manifesting in its missions, visions, values and objectives . These are the critical success factors that should be explicitly defined by any government as its blueprint . In such a blueprint , stakeholders influences and the expectations are fully taken care of .
Strong leaders that are determined to make difference are known by this habit . During the time of the late sage , Chief Obafemi Awolowo, these are clearly defined in the party manifesto and religiously followed at implementation . However , since Osun state was created ,this is either absent or neglected once voted in ; Osun state is a case study of this ugly scenario . Consequently , its progress has remained uninspiring while both the state civil servants and the politicians have hijacked this responsibility and continued to hold every successive government in Osun state by jugular with massive influence and expectations at the expense of the majority or the rest populace .For this , some administrations in the past had fallen victim of their unrealistic demands and influence and consequently unable to perform or follow any credible blueprint for the state development .
The question now is : how are the above critical drivers of the state strategic position that are specifically playing out in Osun state likely to impact the performance of Adeleke ? These are what shaped the performance of the past governments in Osun State and will do the same to the performance of Ademola Adeleke in the next four years .
Poor Strategic Choices Keep the State on the Treadmill
The answer to the above question is simple .The performance of any leader or governor depends on the strategic choices , the options for strategy in terms of both the directions and the methods by which strategy might move or be pursued, that are put in place to exploit the opportunities in the state and outside it as well as those that will be adopted to reduce the threats that are likely to hinder the fulfillment of his ambition.
From the prism of the state strategic position analyzed above , there is no doubt that the governor is faced with an uphill task over his ambition to make the difference relative to his predecessors .
Every government in order to deliver competitive dividends of democracy relative to its predecessors wants to be unique just like the incumbent is trying to prove to the populace by his first impressions or 100 days performance . Sequel to this ambition, different strategies and models are usually embarked upon to deliver critical values to its stakeholders. From its 100 days Adeleke wants to be everywhere and satisfy all the stakeholders. .
However, our investigations revealed though the performance is averagely impressive , the quality of the works done failed to live up to the expectations of the people . The government has ,no doubt, chosen to go for a low cost model than high quality by our estimations and some people interviewed around the state last week .
But the reason for this may not be far to seek .The issue boils down to the adequacy of the resources which could be exploited by the governor to drive his ambition relative to the stakeholders expectations .
But is it the question of resources alone? There seems to be a need for a better understanding of what actually is the most critical handicap to the progress of Osun and how its current strategic position could be enhanced . To some people , economically, Osun State is one of the Nigeria’s states that are believed to be financially and technically less viable . Those who had led the state had always blamed their uninspiring performance mostly to this singular factor . Of course , this could not be disputed going by its financial resources relative to some states
But some analysts believed those behind the above belief are grossly disingenuous . For them , available facts and figures fail to confirm the above belief ; they claimed Osun state ,by the available facts and figures ,is competitive in terms of resources , at least potentially .
This may not be farfetched . Even the existing resources confirm this belief . The last Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Osun state has a total GDP of $7.3 billion. This places it among the 14 states in Nigeria with the highest GDP. .
Even the State’s internally generated revenues (IGR) do not place it among the least in Nigeria , although its federation account allocation (FAAC) is the 35th largest in the country (or what amounts to the second lowest of the 36 States and Abuja, FCT).
In the first half of 2021, according to NBS data, the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of Osun state stood at N13.67 billion, placing it among the top 16 states with the highest IGR in the first 6 months of 2021. Data shows that the state has experienced continuous annual growth in its IGR from 2016 to 2020 except in 2018 when it dipped. The IGR grew from N8.88 billion in 2016 to N19.67 billion in 2020. . The state’s IGR has increased by 9.77% (2019-2020).
However , while such growth is commendable, data from NBS shows that the state still relies heavily on the statutory allocations from the federal government to meet its expenditure obligation, even though those allocations have been declining since 2018.
On fiscal sustainability, Osun state is believed to have improved according to the latest report which examined Nigeria’s 36 states’ fiscal performance using several indicators. The report, which used four indexes including the ability of states to meet their operating expenses; the ability to meet operating expenses and loan repayment without having to borrow; fiscal power to borrow more given low debt burden vis-à-vis how much is generated in a year and, prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures confirmed this belief
. In a report, at the end of 2020, Osun state had a total debt of N192.82 billion; an increase of N89.02% from the 102.01 billion in 2016. The state was also ranked 31st out of 36 states for its fiscal performance in the year 2020. However, in the 2021 ranking, the state came 13th place out of the 36 states, indicating an improvement in its fiscal sustainability. However, there’s still work to be done in this regard as the loan versus IGR ratio is still high.
Under the last administration, the state’s debt increased by 11.41% between 2019-2020, making Osun the 7th most indebted state in Nigeria. The implication of this is that Adeleke will be confronted higher state’s debt burden vis a vis fiscal sustainability. Sequel to the he has to put in place strategies to boost the state’s IGR and reduce its heavy dependence on statutory allocations from the federal government in order to meet its expenditure obligation.
Unemployment is another debacle before the new governor to tackle . Although Osun state has the fourth lowest unemployment rate in the country and the second-lowest in the South-West region, the latest labour force statistics by NBS show an increase in the state’s unemployment rate. Before the immediate past administration came on board, in 2017 the unemployment rate in Osun was 19%. In 2018, the figures increased to 24.7%, then to its current 37.3%. This shows an upward trend in the unemployment rate. In fact, within three years, the unemployment rate in the state has increased by 96.47%.
A major problem plaguing Nigeria today is the increasing poverty rate. In 2019, the national poverty headcount was 70%; by 2020 it had increased to 73.22%. This year, the World Bank has said that the number of persons living in poverty in Nigeria will increase to 95.1 million, which is an increase of 6.7% from the 2020 figure.
With the increasing national poverty rate, Osun state may likely experience a corresponding increase in its poverty rate. .
Also , the number of out-of-school children is on increase in Osun. According to data from NBS, there are 165,114 out-of-school children in Osun state as of 2018. With this figure, Osun is among the 11 states with the lowest number of out-of-school children in the country. Of this figure, 68.52% are males, and 31.48% are females.
With the above ugly scenario , improving access to education in the state should be a priority of the governor .His priority will have to include the quality of learning, school infrastructure, and teachers’ welfare.
Another burning issue and challenge is the ease of doing business in the state . Among other things, one key factor that attracts both local and international investment to a country is the business environment. The latest subnational data on the ease of doing business ranked Osun state 15th out of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The state scored 5.57 out of a total index score of 10. Al the states were assessed on four thematic areas – Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness.
With respect to health, the indicators in Osun state are quite poor. The under-five mortality rate in the state is estimated at 70 deaths per 1,000 live births. According to a 2020 report by the USAID and Health Policy Plus (HP+), mortality rate in Osun is higher than the average of 62 deaths per 1,000 live births in Lower-Middle-Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite the relative potentialities of Osun State as indicated above that make the state competitive , it is certain that its resources are still inadequate and every government that had come power blamed their limitations on this factor.
More a Question of Leadership than Resources Limitation
Beyond the above , the most critical handicap to the state’s progress is not financial limitation but poor quality of leadership .
The first weak point of the state leadership is the difficulty of prioritizing what are particularly valued by its stakeholders by successive governments since the state was created . Sequel to this , different stakeholders have always been in contention as the conflict of interests worsened this issue of inadequacy of resources .
Mostly , the civil servants and the politicians who are in the minority , and the general masses who are in the majority are usually at loggerheads . Only the leadership with ability to reconcile this conflict of interests could succeed in office .
Adeleke’s government will surely be confronted by the above challenges and this is what will expose his political and economic dexterity .
In other words , while the issue of financial resources limitation raised above is a key handicap to the progress of Osun and could not be waived aside by anybody ,the most critical challenge remains the ways in which the available resources are deployed ; for any government ,critical success factors are strong strategic capability that manifests palpably in the leadership’s power of foresight , strategic architecture, intent , stretch and leverage.
That is what cast a heavy doubt over Adeleke’s potentiality . When Olawale Rasheed ,his Chief Press Secretary , was asked certain questions concerning where his principal is likely to get funds to deliver his ambitious programmes , the blueprint for the state turnaround ,the intellectual base and experience to drive his administration ,he promised to provide explanations . However , a week after, nothing seems to be forthcoming .
But without the above elements of strategic capability it could be difficult for any government to exploit ,drive and maximize the potential opportunities highlighted above or minimize those threats and enhance a state resource base to be able to outperform other states and its predecessors .
This is the core challenge before the incumbent governor . For lack of creativity rather than meager resources on the part of the government in power ,many states including Osun have remained helplessly on the threshold and unable to live up to what its stakeholders particularly valued .
This is becoming more critical in a knowledge based economy where the capability of the leadership of any administration is critically underpinned by knowledge . This is more so because values that are created or opportunities exploited and threats eliminated by any government depends on its ability to deploy the resources to create competence .
There are two bases for delivering values to the relevant stakeholders by any savvy government. It either achieves better values for its stakeholders by adopting a strategic fit or by stretch or both to achieve its purpose .
Unless a leadership strategy continues to fit the environment in which it is operating and fit the opportunities and threats that exist , it is not likely to live up to the expectations of its stakeholders ; this is because the environment is dynamic and the strategy capability must also be dynamic . In other words , changing strategic capability better to fit the changing environment is a critical success factor .
Also , the strategic capability of any successful government could be its leading edge of strategic development in the sense that new opportunities may be created by stretching and exploiting government ’s capabilities by changing the rule of the game .
Any government aspiring to change the face Osun and outperform its predecessors needs to adjust the state internal strengths to the environmental opportunities . The governor and his team need to identify, combine, re-combine, and manage the state resources, competencies and capability to explore the state potentials to perform better than his predecessors on the stakeholders needs ,preferences and desires .
So , in a nutshell , the competitive advantage gained by any government in power consists in identification of the internal core competences, mainly based on knowledge assets and intellectual capital, that align with the key success factors that lead to better performance .
The above are the challenges awaiting Adeleke in the next four years.
No doubt , Osun state is in dire need of a leadership that could create a new future not a populist . To achieve this feat , Osun State needs an intellectual leadership with good foresight to give the state a new direction ,build the best possible assumption base about the future and thereby develop the prescience needed to proactively shape its future. As much as anything, foresight comes from really wanting to make a difference in people’s lives.
Though ,foresight is not enough to guarantee a profitable journey toward the future,yet without foresight, the journey cannot even begin . Based on deep insights into the trends in technology, demographics, regulation, and lifestyles ,foresight can be harnessed to rewrite institutional rules and create new competitive space .
That is why any government without a credible blueprint is doomed already because it helps managers answer three critical questions. First, what new types of service benefit should we seek to provide in five, ten, or fifteen years? Second,what new competencies will we need to build or acquire to offer those benefits to the people ? And third, how will we need to reconfigure the people experience during the tenure of the government or in the near future . .
Answers to the above will drive a prescient, well-founded, and creative view of tomorrow’s opportunities that will spur preemptive competence-building, provide focus to those efforts, ensure consistency in investment programmes, and serve as a guide to decisions about strategic alliances and acquisitions.
However , one critical lapse of some leaders is to equate foresight to execution .All the foresight in the world, if not matched by a capacity to execute, counts for little. On the other hand, terrific executional ability, in the absence of foresight, is not enough to guarantee future success
To gain the right execution and deliver relevant values or dividend of democracy ,however, the future must not only be imagined, it must be built; the state needs an architect who must also be capable of producing a blueprint for how to turn the dream into reality.
A leader that will outperform his predecessors in Osun must have a strategic architecture that identifies “what the state must be doing right now” to intercept the future , the one that indicates the essential link between today and tomorrow, between short term and long term ,what competencies it must begin to build right now, the new stakeholders values that must be created right now and what new development priorities it should be pursuing right now to intercept the future.
While a strategic architecture may point the way to the future, it’s an ambitious and compelling strategic intent that provides the emotional and intellectual energy for the journey , and this is imperative for an outperforming governor in Osun state .
Where the current capabilities and resources are manifestly insufficient to the task like in Osun , the traditional view of strategy that focuses on the “fit” between existing resources and emerging opportunities may not deliver any critical success factors . Consequently , a strategic intent which creates, by design, a substantial “misfit” between resources and aspirations is imperative to make up for the gap .
This is more so, because getting to the future first is more a function of resourcefulness than resources; resourcefulness stems not from an elegantly structured strategic architecture, but from a deeply felt sense of purpose, a broadly shared dream, a truly seductive view of tomorrow’s opportunity.
From any angle you look at it , Osun state needs a leadership that takes little notice of current resource constraints and demonstrate that it is possible to do more with less.
In other words , the starting resource positions are a very poor predictor of a future success . A state can sit atop mountains of cash and command legions of talented people, and still lose its preeminent position. Likewise, a state can sometimes overcome enormous resource handicaps and successfully scale the heights of leadership
The above is a function of resource leverage, which could be achieved by effectively concentrating resources on key strategic goals,by more efficiently accumulating resources,by complementing resources of one type with those of another to create higher-order value, by conserving resources wherever possible, and by rapidly recovering resources by minimizing the time between expenditure and pay-back.
Just like late Chief Obafemi Awolowo ,transformed the old Western region , an outperforming governor in Osun state with strong foresight is expected to go for an intensive agricultural investment embark on cash crops for agro –allied industries by exploiting its unique landmass for this and build an industrial estate ; it could position the state as a trading centre or commercial nerve centre for other states around it with companies in Lagos as its partners , the nation’s industrial hub , turning the state to a distribution centre or depot by making use of the rail transport .By this reducing the rigor and expenses of people from Ekiti ,Ondo ,Kwara and Kogi states travelling down to Lagos . ; it could build a technology acquisition centres for the looming youths to engender a state that is less dependent on federal allocation .
Though every successive government in Osun had contributed its quota to justify its mandate from the electorates to some extent , however , absence of an intellectual and strategic leadership has led to mostly to their inability to exploit the potential opportunities that littered the state and minimize the existing and the potential threats as well .
Instead of the above initiatives , issues such the inadequate and inappropriate funding , lack of foresight or political will and creativity as well as heavy corruption continue to deprive the state the much needed development after more than three decades of its existence .The question now remains, can Adeleke make the difference ? Time will surely tell .
