Understanding the Tinubu Presidency Objectives and the Nigeria Question
Nigeria’s ruling party candidate, Bola Tinubu, was on Wednesday declared the winner of the presidential election, after defeating the candidates of the two main opposition parties. Analysts describe the poll as the most keenly contested since the country returned to Democratic rule in 1999. The announcement of final results by the Chairman of the Independent Nigerian Election Commission (INEC) Prof. Mahmud Yakubu early on Wednesday, has however been met with contestation by members of the opposition who had staged a workout from the National Collation Centre in Abuja after concerns of irregularities were unaddressed. But judging by his manifesto Analysts say that the centrepiece of Tinubu’s fiscal and economic policy would be to bring about fast-growing, premised on industrialization and economic diversification.
Tinubu’s administration seeks to address the country’s high unemployment and poverty by targeting an overly ambitious 12% annual growth rate given that the country’s long-run growth rate is only around 5%. While the new administration would deploy tax policies in line with the Trickle-down theory Analysts believe this would raise big questions about the Federal Government’s (FG) ailing finances. Analysts recommend that the next administration must prioritize opening the capital account by offering opportunities for investment in the many redundant assets of the country as well as issuing new licenses for Greenfield investment in critical sectors. This way fiscal and external sector liquidity can improve significantly with positive knock-on effects on employment and domestic inflation (see illustration 1 below).
