When Olayemi Cardoso received his mandate to head Nigeria’s Central Bank, he gave himself the task of entrenching macroeconomic stability and to induce economic development. His focus therefore, he said would be on monetary ,price and financial stability .
In the last one year ,with deft application of tools that a central banker is at liberty to draw on , Cardoso concentrated more on traditional monetary policy goals such as foreign exchange market liberalizaton and inflation-targetting ; he paid the outstanding debts,removed eight year ban on 43 items and mandated the banks to pursue recapitalization with a deadline put at 2026 .
With the above initiatives, he restored the apex bank credibility with transparency ,stabilized the foreign exchange rate , maintained financial stability and wrestled well to move down the inflation rate within the target set .
Speculative trading had been minimised , stability was gradually returning to the currency markets just as headline inflation eased to 32.15% in August 2024, down from 33.40% in July, mainly due to a reduction in food inflation ; growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), narrowing gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates and clearance of over $7 billion FX backlogs to mention but a few are the positive economic signals that excite analysts.
A detailed analysis of his initiatives revealed how those critical economic fearures were achieved amidst some critical challenges.
Unified Exchange Rate Market
One of the waves of reforms initiated by Cardoso is the liberalization of the foreign exchange market. The naira was floated to find its true value, a bold move aimed at eliminating speculative arbitrage and narrowing the margin between official and parallel market rates. The bold step of floating the Naira in the foreign exchange market in order was to bring the official exchange rate closer to market reality.
This initiative is ,indeed, bold .a step . About three CBN Governors before Cardoso had toyed with the floatation option when they faced constant excess demand for foreign exchange and exchange rate pressures. They all abandoned the option due to fear of massive depreciation of the value and the contagion effect across the macroeconomic space .
Speaking for the first time on his journey on the saddle so far and focusing on the turbulence in the financial market following his assumption of office a year ago, Cardoso explained that the floatation policy was meant to address the disparity between the official and parallel rates which encouraged arbitrage and speculation, eroding trust in the market. The Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, confirmed this as much . He said the exchange rate unification policy was bold and courageous. He said it is expected that the benefits of the forex reforms would crystalise later.
“Exchange rate management goes beyond exchange rate unification. It must address issues surrounding market structure, easy access and adequate supply. This means effectively dismantling forex rationing, administrative controls, and reviewing import restrictions” ,Rewane declared .
Expanding FX Sources
The CBN, under Cardoso, also worked with the Federal Government to address the current dollar scarcity and shore up the naira. “For instance, Nigeria’s source of funds from the diaspora, Nigerians living and working abroad who have families here and who are interested in keeping a presence here. CBN encouraged them to save in Nigeria perhaps by improving payment mechanisms.” In addition, the CBN has fulfilled all its debt obligations to businesses, and no airline has complained about its inability to source FX from the market. Part of the reasons CBN met these obligations was the growth in FX flows due to the bank’s policies under
Despite its numerous setbacks, Rewane insisted that the current exchange rate framework has brought about transparency in the forex market, reduced exchange rate misalignment and transaction costs, and opened the economy to offshore investors .
Removed Ban on 43 Items
Cardoso also removed the eight-year ban on 43 items, a policy that had rendered many transactions invisible and driven importers into the parallel market. Removing these restrictions was critical to fostering a more transparent market and alleviating demand pressure.
CBN cleared $7bn forex backlogs
The Central Bank of Nigeria successfully cleared all valid foreign exchange backlogs, effectively eliminating a legacy burden. This accomplishment fulfils a commitment made by CBN Governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, who vowed to address an inherited backlog of $7bn in claims.
Free Fall Of Naira And Its Stabilization
Despite his frantic efforts and initiatives highlighted above,unfortunately, barely a few months into the job, Cardoso ’s mettle was tested as the naira went into a free fall particularly due to the unification of the foreignexchangemarket . The naira tumbled several times, hitting an all-time low at almost N2,000/$1 at the parallel market at some point .Consequently, the cost of foods and other goods have skyrocketed as the value of the naira gets terribly-eroded, leaving the masses to wallow in squalor with no respite in sight
The above development generated heated controversy against the new forex regime and the CBN Governor. The downward trend of the naira against the dollar prompted Nigerians to pose questions to Yemi Cardoso, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria about the continued depreciation of the currency.
The massive decline in the value of the Naira under the watch of the new government was particularly worrying not just for the staggering pace of the devaluation but most importantly, many believed the government was failing at one of the core areas in which it had been expected to excel in.
However , heated criticism notwithstanding, Cardoso tenaciously faced the battle stabilize the naira squarely . Driven by an understanding that the credibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had to be the bedrock of the actions he and his team took, he remained undaunted. . He said, “Without credibility, no policy, however well-intentioned, could succeed. To him floating the naira was necessary to bring the official exchange rate closer to market reality.
Knowing that disparity between the official and parallel rates had encouraged arbitrage and speculation, eroding trust in the market, he insisted his strategic move must continue to gain credibility . “Credibility is earned by consistency. The decision to close this gap, while painful in the short term, sent a message to market participants that the CBN was committed to transparency and sound monetary policy.” he added, noting that speculative trading had been reduced and stability was gradually returning to the currency markets.
Benefits Of Rate Transparency.
Consequently , the rate hike and the move towards greater transparency in the official market resulted in significant foreign capital inflows into the country. It was estimated that close to $4 billion came into Nigeria in the first quarter of 2024, which was a 200 percent increase in flows relative to the same period in 2023. In addition, remittance flows doubled over the same period, driven by renewed attempts by the CBN to foster greater competition by permitting more IMTOs to operate, along with other steps towards enabling greater transparency and faster settlement of remittance obligations.
These steps include the willing buyer-willing seller model and the bank’s liquidity support program, which has quickly improved IMTOs’ access to naira to settle obligations to those in the Diaspora. The surge in capital and remittance flows helped to support the appreciation of the naira from N2000 in March to N1585 in August 2024 from N2000 before.
Cardoso recently affirmed CBN’s commitment to fair, efficient markets. He said the Bank’s decision to implement the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) is rooted in the understanding that trust is essential to central banking.
Addressing members of the Harvard Club of Nigeria in Lagos at the weekend on the topic: “Leadership in Challenging Times: Restoring Credibility, Building Trust, and Containing Inflation,” Mr. Cardoso reiterated that the CBN’s move was to enhance transparency and provide more accurate oversight of foreign exchange transactions.
According to him, “Trust is the currency of central banking. If the public loses trust in the institution, the efficacy of its policies diminishes. Our decision to implement the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) is rooted in this understanding.
“By enhancing transparency and providing more accurate oversight of forex transactions, we send a strong signal that the CBN is serious about fair and efficient markets,” he added.
Mr. Cardoso, who marks one year in office as CBN Governor this week, told his audience that leadership, especially as the head of a central bank, often requires making difficult and sometimes unpopular decisions. He emphasized that the Bank is a listening institution, unafraid to reconsider decisions if they fail to meet its original objectives.
“In the face of economic challenges, it is imperative to focus on core objectives—restoring the credibility of the institution, building trust in the financial system, and, most critically, containing inflation. These are not just strategic goals; they are foundational to any meaningful recovery,” he said.
Battling Rising Inflation.
Cardoso has equally confronted the dreaded inflation rate surge in the last one year. the Central Bank Governor made it clear that the CBN under the new dispensation would concentrate more on traditional monetary policy goals such as inflation-targetting rather than quasi-fiscal economic interventions. The premise behind inflation targeting globally is straightforward. Monetary authorities aim to guide economic agents’ expectations and behaviour by establishing a clear and measurable inflation goal, fostering stability and preventing mission drift.
In December 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to 28.92% relative to the November 2023 headline inflation rate which was 28.20%. Looking at the movement, the December 2023 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.72% points when compared to the November 2023 headline inflation rate.
On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 7.58% points higher compared to the rate recorded in December 2022, which was 21.34%. This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in December 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2022). Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 32.15% in August 2024 down from the 33.40% recorded in July 2024, reflecting a decrease of 1.25 percentage points .However, on a year-on-year basis, the August 2024 inflation rate was 6.35 percentage points higher than the 25.80% rate recorded in August 2023, indicating a significant increase over the past year.
On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate in August 2024 stood at 2.22%, slightly lower than July’s rate of 2.28%, signaling a slower pace in the increase of the average price level compared to the previous month. The average annual core inflation rate for the twelve months ending August 2024 was 25.18%, which represents a 6-percentage point rise from the 19.18% recorded in August 2023.
In spite of the above inflation status,the Nigeria’s central bank, led by Governor Olayemi Cardoso, is determined to combat inflation and enhance the undervalued naira currency, aiming for a significant drop in inflation to around 21%.
To regulate money supply and reduce up excess liquidity from the system, Cardoso has kept jerking up the interest rate by raising its Monetary Policy Rate , MPR. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised its monetary policy rate (MPR) for the fifth consecutive time in 2024. At the end of its meeting on September 24, 2024, the apex bank raised the MPR by 50 basis points to 27.25% from 26.75%. The hike came against the backdrop of most analysts’ projections of a hold on rates. .Reactions/Developments Trailing Last Rate Hike.
In addition to the MPR hike, the MPC also voted to raise the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) from 45% to 50%, and from 14% to 16% for Merchant Banks. The bank said these moves are aimed at tightening liquidity in the financial system and stabilizing the economy. The committee, however, retained the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30% and maintained the Asymmetric Corridor at +500/-100 basis points around the MPR.
This latest policy shift comes as Nigeria continues to grapple with inflation and the need to maintain a balance between economic growth and price stability. In a recent address, Cardoso highlighted the CBN’s inflation-targeting policy, projecting a decline in inflationary pressures to 21.4% in 2024. He emphasized the positive impact of enhanced agricultural output and the alleviation of global supply chain challenges on consumer confidence and purchasing power. The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN to key decisions to further tighten monetary policy, with the further decision to increase the Monetary Policy Rate from its previous level to 27.5 per cent. Other decisions were to retain the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points, and raise the Cash Reserve Ratio for Deposit Money Banks and Merchant Banks and to maintain the liquidity ratio at its current level of 30 per cent.
“The committee expressed concern that despite recent moderation in headline inflation, core inflation remains high, indicating that inflationary pressures are far from easing”, the apex bank said in a statement on Tuesday. The MPC acknowledged the slight moderation in headline inflation in July and August 2024, largely due to a decline in food inflation.
1. Persistent Core Inflation pressures
While headline inflation in Nigeria showed some moderation in recent months, core inflation remains stubbornly high, driven by the rising costs of energy.
The CBN reported that headline inflation eased to 32.15% in August 2024, down from 33.40% in July, mainly due to a reduction in food inflation.
However, core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food, actually increased to 27.58% from 27.47% during the same period.
The CBN emphasized that core inflation needs to be addressed because it reflects the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy: “Core inflation has remained elevated, driven primarily by rising energy prices”.
2. Managing excess liquidity and foreign exchange demand
Nigeria’s growing money supply has led to excess liquidity in the financial system, which is putting pressure on the foreign exchange market.
The CBN noted that addressing this liquidity glut is critical to reducing demand pressures on foreign exchange, which could otherwise destabilize the naira.
They noted that “the continued growth in money supply” was causing a rise in liquidity, necessitating the tightening of monetary policy to prevent further depreciation of the currency.
The external reserves have seen some improvement, standing at $39.07 billion as of September 19, 2024, up by 17.4% compared to $33.28 billion in the same period of 2023.
This reserve position represents 8 months of import cover for goods and services. Stabilizing the naira is crucial to maintaining this reserve level and preventing capital flight.
3. Stabilizing the exchange rate and enhancing investor confidence
One of the key successes of the CBN’s hawkish stance has been the stabilization of the exchange rate.
The bank has managed to reduce volatility across different segments of the foreign exchange market, which is critical for fostering investor confidence and encouraging long-term planning.
The MPC pointed out the “relative stability and convergence in the exchange rate across the various market segments”, attributing this stability to the tight monetary stance.
By stabilizing the exchange rate, the CBN says it aims to enhance Nigeria’s attractiveness to international investors, especially as inflation moderates.
The CBN also states that maintaining a strong currency is essential for encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) and bolstering economic growth.
4. Aiming for a positive real interest rate to attract investments
Another reason the CBN gave is that it is keen on making Nigeria a more attractive destination for foreign investment by achieving a positive real interest rate.
Despite the recent moderation in headline inflation, Nigeria’s real interest rate remains negative.
The MPC acknowledged that this was a problem for drawing international capital into the economy.
To change this, they stressed the importance of sustaining efforts to make the real interest rate positive, stating: “To attract investments into the economy, efforts must be sustained to achieve a positive real interest rate”.
This means that even after inflation, investors should see a net positive return on their investments.
With global competition for capital fierce, a positive real interest rate would significantly enhance Nigeria’s attractiveness on the international stage.
5. Concerns about the growing Fiscal Deficit and impact of FAAC releases
The CBN also raised alarms about Nigeria’s growing fiscal deficit and how it impacts the liquidity in the banking system.
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) releases funds to various tiers of government, and these releases inject large sums of liquidity into the system, which can disrupt monetary policy efforts.
The CBN highlighted a “strong correlation between FAAC releases and liquidity levels in the banking system as well as its impact on the exchange rate”, making it crucial to monitor these releases carefully.
In the broader context of Nigeria’s fiscal situation, the MPC noted concerns about the rising fiscal deficit but welcomed the fiscal authority’s commitment not to resort to monetary financing (printing money).
Still, with excess liquidity from FAAC releases feeding into the system, tighter monetary policy is essential to prevent these liquidity injections from pushing inflation higher.
Recapitalization of Banks
The biggest achievement of Emefiele, giving the recent history of the banking system, is maintaining domestic financial stability and prevented systemic risk, which is the risk that an event will trigger a loss of confidence in the financial system.Under Cardoso’s leadership, the CBN has taken decisive steps to ensure that Nigerian banks are well-capitalized and resilient enough to support economic growth. Recognizing the importance of robust capital buffers, the CBN announced in November 2023 that banks must meet new capital thresholds by March 2026. Banks have been required to either issue new equity, merge with other institutions, or adjust their licenses to comply with the updated capital requirements.
This recapitalization effort is intended to strengthen the banking sector’s ability to withstand economic shocks, absorb loan losses, and provide sufficient liquidity to the broader economy. With increased capital, banks will be able to underwrite larger levels of credit, support more significant projects across various sectors, and ultimately drive higher income.
According to Ayodeji Ebo, managing director and CBO of Optimus by Afrinvest, the recapitalization program will enable Nigerian banks to take on bigger risks, bolster investor confidence, and ensure the banking system remains resilient in the face of future economic challenges.
Ebo also highlighted the fact that stronger capital positions would likely lead to lower lending rates in the medium to long term, which would further stimulate economic growth.
Cardoso has also placed emphasis on enhancing regulatory oversight and expanding financial inclusion. In the past year, the CBN under his leadership has approved new licences for a variety of financial institutions, reflecting a commitment to strengthening the banking and finance sector.
Notably, a merchant bank transitioned to a national commercial bank, while two banks received approval in principle (AIP) for regional commercial licenses. Additionally, another institution was granted AIP for regional non-interest banking, a move aimed at diversifying Nigeria’s banking landscape and fostering financial inclusion.
Moreover, 16 new microfinance banks were licensed, while 53 previously revoked licenses were reinstated, providing a significant boost to the microfinance sector. These licensing activities are crucial in promoting financial inclusion, especially in underserved regions of Nigeria, as they expand access to financial services for individuals and businesses alike.
The finance company segment has also experienced growth, with five new firms receiving approval to commence operations. These developments reflect Cardoso’s focus on improving access to financial services across Nigeria, particularly for the unbanked and underbanked populations.
One of the hallmarks of Cardoso’s administration has been his emphasis on collaboration with other financial regulators. Through the Financial Services Regulation Coordinating Committee (FSRCC), the CBN has fostered regular inter-agency meetings to address issues ranging from cryptocurrency regulation to infrastructure financing. This improved coordination has contributed to a more cohesive regulatory environment, reducing potential risks to the financial system and promoting sustainable growth.
The CBN has also been a key player in the development of Nigeria’s fintech sector, which has seen significant growth in recent years. Cardoso’s administration has worked to strike a balance between fostering innovation and ensuring that the financial system remains secure. New regulations have been introduced to address the risks posed by emerging technologies, including stricter Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) requirements for digital wallets and fintech products
From Growth to Greatness, the US$1trn Question
The quest for economic greatness and the aspiration to achieve a $1trn GDP within the next seven years has ignited a crucial conversation about the structural shifts needed to achieve the envisioned growth.
Analysts and industry experts say the focus should centre on transforming the manufacturing subsector, a key driver among the 46 sectors of the GDP, to realise the ambitious target. While manufacturing has contributed around 10% to the country’s GDP over the last half a century, it is considered a growth driver whose share of output needs to be increased to at least 30%. This shift requires a productive economic structure that facilitates sustained growth.
However, achieving this milestone is not solely about the numbers; it’s about creating a sustainable and well-managed growth trajectory that avoids currency devaluation. The path to the US$1trn economy must address the structural issues plaguing the business registration and regulation, energy, and transportation infrastructure. If left unaddressed, these foundational challenges could impede progress and make the journey toward the trillion-dollar economy rough and filled with potholes.
A thought-provoking alternative emerges from Mr. Foluso Phillips, Chairman of Philips Consulting, who noted that if a substantial portion of the informal economy is formalised and the Nigerian economy is rebased correctly, the US$1trn mark may already be within reach. Regardless of the specific figure, analysts say the declared target is a motivational rallying point for a whole-of-government approach to boosting the economy. The call to action is clear – “all hands on deck” to achieve national strategic goals and propel the economy from growth to greatness.
Analysts Views On Cardoso
Cardoso’s administration introduced reforms that unified the FX market, eliminating the arbitrage opportunities that had plagued the system. By introducing transparency in FX transactions and addressing backlogs of FX obligations, Cardoso has improved liquidity and restored some measure of stability to the Naira.In fact, as of July 2024, Nigeria’s external reserves had risen to $37.9 billion, up from $33.6 billion in October 2023, a reflection of the improved confidence in ardoso’s administration introduced reforms Nigeria’s external financial obligations.
David Adonri, HighCap Securities “CBN is not buying into the official figures on inflation, which claim that inflation is moderating, hence, the continued tightening of monetary policy. Furthermore, justification for the hike in interest rate and CRR comes from emerging signs that markets are showing worrisome signs of overheating again. The Naira has recently started to take severe punches while equities are not relenting. With this tightening, equities are expected to cool down as financial assets migrate to debt. However, because monetary policy is short term, the impact will fizzle out when third quarter results start hitting the market.”
Bismarck Rewane, CEO of the Financial Derivatives Company Limited, underscored the importance of these reforms, noting that they were essential in preventing impunity and ensuring that Nigeria’s financial system operated with greater discipline and integrity. Speaking on Arise Television’s Global Business Report, Rewane praised Cardoso’s commitment to institutional reforms, stating that they were crucial for long-term financial stability.
Without any controversy under Cardoso’s guidance, the CBN has introduced a suite of measures aimed at enhancing financial stability, market transparency, and investor confidence
Assessing Cardoso’s one year tenure, the Director General, Center for Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) Dr, Muda Yusuf, said the CBN under Yemi Kadoso has witnessed a number of improvements in the last one year, especially in the area of corporate governance.
He also said Cardoso is working hard to restore the integrity and credibility of the Central Bank
“It’s also something that is very crucial, you know, to the independence of the Central Bank and the effectiveness of its regulatory function. So the corporate governance level has increased remarkably.“So, the corporate governance level has increased remarkably. We have also seen an improvement in the transparency of key transactions, especially the foreign exchange transaction.
The reform in the foreign exchange market has brought considerable transparency to the transactions in the foreign exchange market. That, for me, is something that we need to acknowledge. And that is also good, at least for investors’ confidence. “It also shows that you don’t need to be looking for connections and things and contacts within the CBN or in the political environment for you to be able to access foreign exchange. So that transparency of the foreign exchange ecosystem. It’s a good thing. “We have also seen a reduction in the ways that means financing of government. It has reduced drastically compared to what we used to have. And this for me is a major step to ensure that we bring some sanity into the way we resort to ways that means financing of the Central Bank because this was one of the problems of our macroeconomic environment”, Yusuf told Daily Sun.
